28
A CONSPIRACY theory claims the mainstream account of a major incident is deliberately misleading and that the incident was actually planned by powerful forces to undermine common people’s interests.
The key difference between unearthing a conspiracy, eg, Watergate, and a conspiracy theory is evidence. In the former, brave souls take much risk to collect evidence ultimately accepted by authorities. But the latter are the result of armchair analysis and never produce concrete evidence.
Rather, conspiracy theories thrive on finding minor gaps in mainstream accounts, blowing them out of proportion to claim they are false and providing an alternative conspiracy-based account. They rely on raising doubts that go beyond the realms of reasonable doubt.
Ironically, while subjecting mainstream accounts to endless tests of logic and evidence, conspiracy theorists fail to subject their own account to the same rigour. Finding minor anomalies in mainstream accounts is seen as sufficient by itself to not only disprove it but to also automatically prove alternative accounts. Such theories rely heavily on motivational analysis by claiming that if an entity benefits significantly from a negative incident this in itself is sufficient proof that it must have caused it. This is like arguing that if a husband inherits the wealth of a murdered woman he should be convicted for her murder without the need for further evidence!
Armchair analysts fail to produce concrete evidence.
But why do so many people become conspiracy theorists? Firstly, claiming to have inside news absent in mainstream media helps people project importance and smartness. Secondly, for powerless people smarting from the unfairness of daily lives, spreading conspiracy theories helps in relieving anger.
However, individual needs may not be the most important causes behind conspiracy theories today. They also serve powerful institutional interests. Thus, many such theories are deliberately spread by national spy agencies to further national security and foreign policies, as common in Pakistan and many other places. Fortunately for conspiracy theorists, analytical skills are so weak among so many even educated people that they blindly accept conspiracy theories without reviewing the evidence against mainstream, and for alternative, accounts. Such theories find a ready audience since they claim to reveal the hidden agendas of powerful, evil forces working against weaker people.
Thus, they have a certain populist appeal for people living under unfair political systems. They create the illusion of empowering common people, for unearthing hidden agendas could become the basis for ultimately defeating them. Finally, conspiracy theories also liven up social events by providing fun stories full of intrigue to discuss as a way of digesting a heavy meal.
These antecedents are vividly on display in the mother of all conspiracy theories in recent times, ie, the 9/11 one which continues to thrive even on the 15th anniversary of 9/11. There are various versions of it, some blaming CIA, some Israel, some both; others portraying Al Qaeda as a US pawn.
Thus, the first giveaway clue of a conspiracy theory is the lack of a clear, consistent and coherent story. The theory claims to rely on expert opinion that flying planes cannot destroy massive structures like the World Trade Centre. But who the experts are is rarely revealed.
Probing often reveals that the expert is the nephew of the friend of an uncle who is into constructing small plazas. But skyscraper construction and demolition is such a specialised field that even many qualified civil engineers may not know about it sufficiently to disprove the mainstream 9/11 account, let alone builders of small plazas. I have yet to see a detailed, quantitative treatise which conclusively disproves the mainstream 9/11 account.
Finally, the theory relies on irrelevant motivational analysis by pointing to the massive increase in US power globally after 9/11 and its attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq. It defies logic to say that the US, a global hegemon which has repeatedly attacked smaller countries without provocation, would suddenly have to kill 3,000 of its citizens, that too Wall Street elites, to justify attacking others.
Such faulty logic leads to the ridiculous conclusion that the army arranged the APS attack since its powers have increased so much since then. Ironically, the massive recent leaks the US has suffered have unearthed no clues related to the supposed 9/11 conspiracy!
For young minds keen to avoid conspiracy theories, some tips are in order. Firstly, rely on credible media sources such as Dawn, Al Jazeera and BBC. If the alternative account is not supported by them, just ignore it. Secondly, review the solidity of the evidence provided against mainstream, and for alternative, accounts. Finally, view accounts emerging from spy agencies with a heavy dose of scepticism. Sticking resolutely to these guides for a few months will provide permanent immunity against the false allure of conspiracy theories.
The writer heads INSPIRING Pakistan, a progressive policy unit.
Published in Dawn September 13th, 2016
