Pakistan is witnessing yet another bout of political confrontation. Once again, it’s the PML-N versus the PTI, with smaller parties aligned as per their political-cum-regional interests. The political battleground, as always, is the province of Punjab, where both parties are pitted against each other and wooing voters towards their side.

Regardless of the outcome of the controversy surrounding the Panama Papers leaks, there are clear indications that by the time the next general elections roll around, the real contest will be between Imran Khan’s PTI and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s ruling party.

At least, this is the picture that emerges after reviewing the results of the by-elections held over the past year or so. The trend is more palpable around the fabled G.T. Road region, which has been a mainstay of the Sharif brothers in the past; the PPP had always criticised PM Sharif for leading a political party that only had presence in the constituencies around G.T. Road.

Although, the PML-N leadership claims the PTI is no match for them when it comes winning elections, things are not as safe as the ruling party’s leaders would like to admit. In fact, Imran Khan invariably finds a mention in every single speech made by the PM in the latest spree of public rallies he has addressed.

On August 31, by-elections were held in the NA-63 (Jhelum) constituency, which yielded interesting results. Of the totalled polled votes, 45.5pc (73,819 votes) went to the PTI, against the 50.3pc (81,612) bagged by the PML-N’s winning candidate.

The difference of votes between the two candidates was just around 8,000, a far cry from the landslide victories during the 2013 general elections.

At that time, the PML-N received 57pc of polled votes against 21pc for the PTI in the same constituency. The point to be noted here is that this constituency is considered one of the safest seats for the ruling party. In addition, Chaudhry Fawad Hussain, who contested the election on a PTI ticket, was also associated with the PPP and General Musharraf in the past.

A similar trend was spotted in another G.T. Road constituency, where elections were held in March of this year. Although, the PML-N managed to win NA-101 (Gujranwala), the pattern of voting here was also noteworthy.

In the general elections, the PML-N’s winning candidate received around 50pc of all polled votes, with the rest shared among other parties, including the PML-Junejo, which got 30pc. The PTI candidate, at the time, was nowhere in the race.

However, during the Mar 22 by-elections, the ruling party candidate received 49pc of the vote, while the same PML-J candidate – who this time was contesting on a PTI ticket – managed to garner 48pc, a difference of just around 1,600 votes.

The result of last year’s by-elections in Lahore’s NA-122 are also fresh in the ruling party’s memory. National Assembly Speaker Sardar Ayaz Sadiq could only manage a lead of 2,000 votes, and even lost the provincial assembly seat under him to PTI. Then, PTI-backed candidates won by-elections in Multan against Javed Hashmi and Jahangir Tareen reclaimed his seat in NA-154 (Lodhran).

Winning the by-elections against the ruling party is never easy; so much so that when the PPP was in power in the centre, it hardly lost a by-election, even though they were routed in 2013.

In background discussions too, PML-N leaders admit that the only challenge to their party inside Punjab in the 2018 general elections comes from the PTI. Still, with around two years to go – which is a long time in politics – things can change at a dramatic pace.

Published in Dawn, September 9th, 2016

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