FINALLY, some good news from South Africa. After several years of economic decline, increasing unemployment and rampant corruption, the recent municipal elections hold out some hope for the beleaguered nation.
The African National Congress, established in 1912 to fight for independence from the British, has held power since 1994 after apartheid was abolished two years earlier. Indeed, until the recent municipal contests, Nelson Mandela’s party secured over 60 per cent in every election, and apart from running the central government in Pretoria, dominated all major cities with the exception of Cape Town. Here, the Democratic Alliance (DA) has ruled since 2009.
Seen as a ‘white’ party, the DA had not been able to break out of Cape Town in earlier elections, but with Mmusi Maimane, a charismatic black politician leading it, the party has managed to win the plurality in a number of large cities, pushing the ANC to 55pc of the votes, while it gained 24pc. So while the ANC is still popular in the rural areas, its share of the vote in big towns has fallen sharply.
The issues in the recent elections are familiar to us in the developing world: corruption, unemployment and poor delivery of services. Under President Jacob Zuma, all three have taken on a new urgency as his own conduct has drawn sharp criticism from both white and black communities. When I was in South Africa earlier this year, I did not hear a single voice defending the president.
The reason the DA did so well is that it has a well-earned reputation for good governance in Cape Town. Now it is poised to take charge of city governments in Cape Town, Johannesburg, Pretoria, and most crucially, in Nelson Mandela Bay. The ANC’s defeat here was a particularly heavy blow as the city is the birthplace of the ANC. But its success can prove to be a poisoned chalice, given the fact that apart from Cape Town, the DA has not won outright majorities in the other cities. This electoral reality has forced it into accepting support from the radical party of the Economic Freedom Fighters.
Led by the young firebrand Julius Malema, the party gained just 8pc of votes overall, but this number has given it a kingmaker’s powers in key cities. The EFF has a programme of bank nationalisation and the expropriation of white farms. Having seen what havoc similar policies carried out by Robert Mugabe in neighbouring Zimbabwe have caused, many South Africans reject the EFF’s extreme left-wing agenda. However, given the 25pc unemployment rate, many young South Africans have flocked to the party.
But it is corruption that has galvanised millions to switch loyalty, and vote for the DA, the EFF and other smaller parties. Although the ANC spent a billion rand ($71 million) on the elections, it was unable to overcome the perception of sleaze that has so tainted it. Zuma’s decadent lifestyle and his proximity to the Gupta family have made him toxic. The Guptas are reported to have appointed ministers in Zuma’s cabinet, and have recently fled the country.
Many observers were of the view that a poor result in the elections might force the party to demand Jacob Zuma’s exit from the presidency. If he stays till the presidential election due in 2019, there is a real danger that the ANC might be forced from power for the first time since 1994.
However, for this to happen, the DA will need to prove its competence in the cities it will be running. But whether the EFF will allow it to function effectively is another matter. It is in Julius Malame’s interest to show that the DA cannot deliver while the ANC is corrupt, and thus emerge as the logical choice. Malame was in the ANC until he was thrown out for his disruptive behaviour, and has always been seen as a wild card in South African politics.
The possibility of gridlocked major cities has dented the early euphoria caused by the election results. Initially, the rand rallied, but is again drifting downwards. Although the price of gold has picked up recently, the commodities market is still in a slump. And as a significant part of exports comprise minerals, iron ore and steel, the economy has been hard hit. A drought has pushed up food prices, and a weak rand has made imports more expensive.
But a longer-term problem is the sharp decline in the quality of education being imparted in state schools. Soon after independence, most white teachers were retired and replaced by blacks. Many of them were poorly qualified, and have caused a sharp fall in standards.
So how does the ANC hope to regain its popularity in order to ensure victory in 2019? Thus far, Zuma is holding on to power, and according to reports, plans to create jobs by increasing public spending. Given the budget deficit the country is already running, this cannot be a good idea. As it is, international confidence in the South African economy is low, with foreign investments largely limited to the consumer and service sectors.
And yet it’s not all doom and gloom: South Africa is endowed with many natural resources and an abundance of wildlife that tourists flock to see. As we have seen, the electorate is sensibly voting in its own interest, and has spurned the ANC in large numbers. Should the DA perform well between now and the presidential election in 2019, Mmusi Maimane has a good chance of being the next president. His election could be a game changer for South Africa. As the DA has shown in Cape Town, it is capable of good governance and a clean government. There is no reason why, given a chance, it cannot transform the country’s fortunes.
Published in Dawn, August 22nd, 2016
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