HYDER­ABAD: Guddu Barrage is technically witnessing medium flood after receiving Chitral’s flash floods which may further swell flows at the barrage to 335,000 cusecs on Monday.Weather pandits have forecast heavy rains across Sindh, including Karachi, during the next couple of weeks.

Till noon on Sunday, upstream discharge at Guddu was 325,846 cusecs and downstream flows were 294,000 cusecs.

Discharges at Sukkur and Kotri barrages remained same until 6pm on Sunday as Sukkur passed a flow of 156,745 cusecs downstream with upstream flow of 212,540 cusecs at 12pm while Kotri had upstream flow of 56,497 cusecs and downstream discharge of 18,102 cusecs. Flows at both the barrages at 6pm remained unchanged.

“Guddu will record a further rise of a few thousand cusecs by tomorrow to pass peak of around 335,000 cusecs,” said an official at Sukkur barrage.

The official remarked that Taunsa and Chashma barrages – both located upstream Guddu – were on the decline. “Same is the case with flows from Panjnad – a point where flows from Jehlum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej rivers meet to head for Kot Mithan and then for Guddu barrage upstream.

“Besides flash floods from Chitral, there is a forecast for rains for upcountry and Sindh. Apparently, that will increase flows in Indus in Sindh as well but perhaps not that significantly. Still, you can’t rule out abrupt change in weather patterns,” he said.

He said that currently water was flowing in Indus riverbed but it needed around 400,000-500,000 cusecs to touch river dykes or inundate riverine area where summer crops were being grown now.

River flows’ figures indicate that Taunsa got peak of 369,224 cusecs with 343,024 downstream flows on July 7 at 6pm. After remaining steady for 12 hours it showed declining trend at 12pm on July 8 with a discharge of 363,327 cusecs up and 337,877 cusec downstream.

“Now it [Taunsa] is recording decline,” said the official. Likewise, Chashma barrage reached its peak on July 6 at 12pm after receiving upstream discharge of 393,339 cusecs and downstream flows of 373,119 cusecs.

“Guddu is having medium flood and it will keep passing it for a couple of days while Sukkur will have low floods,” said Noor Mohammad Baloch, former chief engineer of Guddu Barrage.

“Tarbela and Mangla will be filled till Aug 20. Tarbela’s level is recorded at 1,511ft and of Mangla 1,220ft. Tarbela is to be filled up to 1,550ft and Mangal up to 1,242ft,” he said.

He said that water had touched the right bank of Indus at Tori dyke downstream Guddu. The floodwater had touched dykes between Guddu and Sukkur barrages at some other locations like KK link dyke, he said.

Flows at Panjnad were recorded at 32,000 cusecs on July 6 and now around 22,000 cusecs are passing through Panjnad to enter Indus at Kot Mithan. All off-taking channels of three barrages are having full supplies and water is flowing downstream Kotri barrage.

According to Sindh secretary of irrigation, technically speaking flows at Guddu have medium floodwater mark but since ratio of increase over and above 300,000 mark is nominal it could still be rated as low flood.

“Had it been 350,000 cusecs it will definitely be declared as medium flood. We expect Guddu to have a flow of another 15,000 cusecs or so by tomorrow,” said Mr Shah.

Published in Dawn, July 11th, 2016