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YOU can hear the restlessness, feel the adrenaline building — the lull is almost over. Pedigreed, mongrel, pampered and scruffy, they’re all waiting for the bell, waiting for the gates to open.
And soon they’ll be away.
It will be chaotic. Some will get trampled under hoof and foot. Others will snap, some at their own tails, some at the closest neck. Many will roar. There will be squeals. Most will eventually collapse in a heap.
And from it all will emerge — a victor of sorts.
Right now, all we have is the prequel and the positioning to go on: Imran said this, PPP filed that, N-League caught between a roar and a look of uncertainty. So, let’s do the only thing we can in this slowest of weeks and handicap the race ahead.
Maryam is vastly inexperienced, appears indifferent to constituency politics; and seems infatuated with the glamour of executive power.
Nawaz — the bits we know suggest he’s well positioned, but the bits we don’t know could make all the difference.
It’s been three months since the Panama Papers. Three months after a grenade detonates and you’re still standing, it usually only means one thing: you’re home free politically.
The ECP disqualification route will create some noise, but it’s hard to see it going anywhere. Four-fifths of the non-functional election commission has to be nominated by the PM.
Even otherwise, assuming the PM and the Leader of the Opp separately forward names to the parliamentary confirmation committee, the parliamentary committee is 50 per cent PML-N.
So it just doesn’t make sense that an anti-Nawaz cohort will be installed in the ECP — and it’s just as hard to imagine that a Nawaz-endorsed, brand-new ECP will immediately go after him.
But there’s still a bit of danger.
The new ECP will be the first under the 22nd Amendment and it may be keen to prove its independence and flex its muscles — by collaterally damaging Maryam. The wide net of the PPP references makes that a possibility.
There is also the problem that is Maryam herself.
Fatherly indulgence and daughterly ambition have plucked her from the trenches and thrust her to the front of the campaign to protect her father’s premiership. That’s fine and possibly a boon too — all the better to have the ultimate determined fighter on your side.
But Maryam is vastly inexperienced; appears indifferent to constituency politics; seems infatuated with the glamour of executive power; and — perhaps most dangerously — shares her father’s obsession with all things Imran.
You can imagine the PTI brain trust working to goad her into mistakes.
The restraining hand of the father and the advice of the wily and tireless Dar could help keep things on course — but high-stakes debuts for princesslings can be nail-biting affairs.
Finally, there is Nawaz himself. A damaged ticker may have made thoughts turn to legacy issues and convalescing under political assault could have lit the fuse of resentment and anger.
Will Nawaz stay calm or is he tempted to unleash? Calm will see him through; unleashing will toss everything up in the air. You know what the enemies would prefer.
Next, the PPP.
The PPP looks like it’s having fun again and seems to be spoiling for a fight, but fireworks and theatre aside, the party is still mired in the same struggles of recent years — a seemingly irreversible slide towards irrelevance in Punjab and a slow, inexorable collision with the boys in Sindh.
Triggering a general election by ousting Nawaz would be the worst outcome for the PPP: the party is in disarray in Punjab and elections in Sindh just now could leave the party vulnerable to contrived and forced losses there.
Nor does it help the wider PPP to build pressure only for Zardari to swoop in and offer Nawaz a quid pro quo: we’ll save you in Islamabad if you get the boys off our back a bit in Sindh.
Silly talk aside, Nawaz as PM is the safest, best option for the PPP — if Nawaz goes, whoever follows him, from inside the N-League or outside, is unlikely to be as hands-off in Sindh and sympathetic to the PPP as Nawaz.
And then there’s Imran.
His advantage is obvious: heads he wins, tails he doesn’t lose. Judicial commission, street agitation, legal wrangling, whatever happens, the basic narrative doesn’t shift — Nawaz is somehow tainted and the PTI is the only real challenger in Punjab.
And if the PTI doesn’t get Nawaz’s scalp in this round, it has at least yet again stopped him from pulling away — until Panama broke, a serene and in-control Nawaz looked like he was cruising to a record fourth term.
But you know that Imran isn’t really playing the long game. If it weren’t for the forced pause of the past month, he’d already have been out there trying to dislodge Nawaz.
Missing though is the obvious ammunition. Panama already feels stale and Imran’s strategy too familiar, the lines of attack staler yet. The PTI’s best bet is to raise hell in Punjab and hope that it drives the N-League to do something stupid.
It’s possible, but unlikely. More likely it’ll end up in a melee with no clear winner and the crown still out of Imran’s reach.
But watch Nawaz — he’s again a bit of an unknown and he’s also got that other business to attend to: steering the transition from Raheel.
The writer is a member of staff.
Twitter: @cyalm
Published in Dawn, July 3rd, 2016
