This is apropos your editorial ‘Unachieved growth target’ (May 22) and Sakib Sherani’s article ‘Behind the numbers’ (May 27). According to official statistics, the growth this year has been put at 4.7pc. Let us examine whether the growth being stated is realistic or achievable and corroborated by key indicators.

The agriculture sector this year has suffered a serious setback, also acknowledged by the government. Production of cotton, our principal cash crop, is devastated by a drop of 30pc, led by Punjab which has witnessed a fall of almost 50pc; rice output has dropped by 50pc in exports.

Sugar production has missed the target, and wheat production is stagnant. The per capita production of wheat has gone down by 2pc to 3pc owing to the annual population growth.

Overall, there has been a significant negative growth in agriculture which is the mainstay of our economy.

The industrial activity has remained sluggish which is reflected in the reduced exports of manufactured goods.

Obviously, there is no economic sense for the manufacturers to produce surplus goods for export, when there are no foreign buyers due to price, quality and poor marketing.

Thus the growth of 6.5pc in the industrial sector estimated by the government is to be met with much scepticism. The only positive factor in the industrial activity was the surge in car production. But increased car production serves the affluent class and in no way benefits the common man.

Notwithstanding what the government may churn out, the truth is there has been a negative growth in the economy this year which is unparalled. The 15pc decline in exports over the low base of 2014-15 and the unabated imports of non-essential and luxury goods, including import of used cars, meant for the rich class, has caused a whopping trade deficit which will cross $22bn by June.

While the FDI is declining, the repatriation of profits by foreign investors is soaring. This, together with the increased debt-servicing and slowdown in remittances, is resulting in substantial borrowings to fill the gap in external account. The gap between the haves and have-nots has increased with more inequitable distribution of income. The affluent class is getting richer while the poorer and economically deprived sections of society are getting worse.

The economy is being damaged by the ruinous policies of the PML-N team. Next year will be even more difficult as the oil prices (Brent) have risen from the low of $31 a barrel in mid-January to $50 a barrel as of now and are likely to rise further.

The remittances are under pressure because of the dwindling oil revenues of oil-producing countries and we may see a negative growth next year. In view of the austerity measures announced by oil-producing countries, there may be reverse migration as expatriate Pakistanis may lose jobs and return home.

The external debt servicing next year will see a huge increase to about $8bn which will accentuate our external account deficit and necessitate further borrowings. The country is already in a debt trap which will aggravate. The economic outlook for year 2016-17 appears more grim.

The country is technically bankrupt and is surviving on bailouts by the IMF and other donor agencies. During the 1990s, the Benazir and Nawaz Sharif governments were dismissed on the ground of their incapacity to handle state affairs. The situation is more serious this time with the country embroiled in the war on terror and the widespread corruption of the politicians having been exposed. It is time that the apex court took suo motu notice of the worsening state of affairs.

Arif Majeed

Karachi

Published in Dawn, May 29th, 2016