In the wake of the Panama leaks, the national political scene has witnessed major developments. Both political observers and politicians agree that this issue will have a long term impact on Pakistani politics.

Let’s start with the ruling PML-N.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who is also party president, has twice addressed the nation to justify the sources of his family’s wealth as his three children - two sons and a daughter - have made it to an infamous list of those who have set up offshore companies.

Earlier this week, he made a detailed speech on the floor of the lower house of parliament, shedding light on how his late father had more than once braved adverse circumstances in 1970s and 1980s to set up a profitable steel factory. But he offered these details only after the opposition upped the ante in parliament by boycotting proceedings.

At the same time, an obviously nervous prime minister also began a series of public meetings across the country to draw attention to his government’s development agenda.

Talking to Dawn, a close aide of the prime minister said: “What other option was [the prime minister] left with after main opposition parties started hitting out against him relentlessly and the powers-that-be also began pressurising the PML-N in the name of across-the-board accountability.”

The prime minister’s nervousness is also evident in his choice of allies; Maualana Fazlur Rehman for example, who has no qualms changing loyalties. The aide acknowledged this when he said: “When you are in hot waters, it’s natural to hold on to all available support. As the chief critic of PTI in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Mr Rehman is the best bet to neutralise Imran Khan, who looks to be on the warpath.”

A PML-N lawmaker admitted that the Panama Papers leak will feature in the next general elections along with the issue of electricity. “If we are lucky as we have been in the case of the inquiry commission on rigging in elections, we can hope to come out unscathed.”

But this is not the only impact the issue will have on the PML-N.

The fact that the names of Nawaz Sharif’s two sons and daughter were in the Panama Papers has also permeated the local political narrative, making their entry into electoral politics controversial and legally difficult.

The PTI, the main opposition party at the moment, is counting on the Panama leaks heavily as well. The party chief Imran Khan has always accused the Sharifs of stashing their ill-gained money in foreign countries.

No wonder then that a senior PTI leader calls the Panama Papers “a godsend opportunity”.

“We will try our best to get a free and fair inquiry to determine if the Sharifs have legally transferred their money abroad, but since we believe that the family broke the law in this case, we are fairly certain that the investigation will incriminate them,” said the PTI leader.

“We cannot afford to let this opportunity slip through our hands,” he added.

Clearly, the PTI feels that this scandal will allow them to shift the balance of power in its favour in Punjab, the battleground between the two parties. However, some in the party also acknowledge that the reports about Imran Khan and others such as Jahangir Khan Tareen owning offshore companies will hurt their image as ‘clean politicians’. This can cost the party votes in the next election.

The PPP is also not far behind PTI in seeing the Panama leaks as an opportunity to weaken the PML-N in Punjab.

Party chairperson Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has set the pace by harshly attacking the Sharifs. Unlike his father, Asif Ali Zardari and the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly, Syed Khursheed Shah, Bilawal has asked Prime Minister Sharif to step down until the inquiry into the Panama leaks is complete.

The PPP Punjab chapter is also excited about Bilawal’s onslaught against the PML-N leadership.

For a former federal minister, who hails from PPP Punjab, the Panama leaks are the best thing to have happened to the party. “Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his three children are in the dock over allegations of tax evasion, money laundering and corruption. What else could the PPP have asked for,” he asked.

He was of the opinion that the PPP will not soften its stand. “I am quite certain that Bilawal has understood the tone and tenor of politics in Punjab and will not backtrack on the stand he has taken against the PML-N leadership.”

Published in Dawn, May 20th, 2016