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Since time immemorial, coastal cities and their hinterlands have been more outward looking and tolerant than inland communities that tend to be insular and close-minded. The reason, of course, is that ports are the entry points for goods, traders, sailors, adventurers and priests. Traditionally, they are hosts and incubators for new ideas and new ways of doing things. The late Eqbal Ahmed once termed Karachi “the only secular city in Pakistan”.
In this tradition, states situated along the eastern and western coasts of the United States have always been more liberal than the Midwest where right-wing ideas have thrived. Thus, the so-called ‘blue states’ along the coastal areas tend to vote for the Democrats, while the ‘red states’ of inland America generally support the Republicans. Of course, this is a generalisation and there have been landslides when a particularly popular presidential candidate has garnered majorities across the country. But by and large, judging by voting patterns in gubernatorial, senatorial and congressional elections, the ‘blue states’ and ‘red states’ model holds good.
So while Donald Trump is leading in the polls for the Republican in both New York state and California, this does not mean that he would stand a chance of carrying these crucial states in November’s presidential election, should he win his party’s nomination. In fact, his unpopularity among vital segments of the population has increased following a series of gaffes in recent days, particularly the one in which he said that women seeking abortions should be punished. Although he beat a hasty retreat from this position, he is still taking a lot of flak from both left and right.
San Francisco — from where I am writing this column — is probably the most liberal and multicultural city in America, with the possible exception of New York. The local economy is booming, thanks to the presence of Silicon Valley. Large numbers of tech start-ups kick off, fuelled by dreams and cash from ‘angel investors’, only to crash and burn in a few months. But the few who do make it, like Uber, the taxi service, and Airbnb, the short-term rental website, make it very big indeed.
Those working at tech firms in Silicon Valley are very well paid and pampered lavishly by their employers. This is not due so much to altruism as to the fiercely competitive nature of the industry. Poaching is common, so employees can command top dollar. But their presence in San Francisco has caused rents to shoot up. Hippies and owners of zany cafes and shops have been forced to move, depriving their city of some of its colour and character.
As the focus of America’s interminable nomination process shifts to New York state, we have been inundated with images of Ted Cruz being booed by immigrants. Trump’s rival has also been plagued by a disparaging remark he made about “New York values”. To a city that prides itself on its liberal views and tolerant outlook, for an outsider like Cruz to sneer at its values is unacceptable. Small wonder that he is running far behind Trump and even John Kasich in the polls.
On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are locked in an epic battle. Although the former has won six out of the last seven primaries, he still trails behind in the number of delegates needed to win the nomination. Clinton, despite her lead in delegates, must win New York, a state she claims is her second home. She has served as its senator, and losing the state would raise question marks about her electability in the presidential election.
As the stakes have got higher, tempers have flared: witness the charge from both sides that the other candidate is “unqualified to become president”. This is especially galling for Clinton, given her years in public life. Sanders is saying that her dependence on corporate financing for her campaign has made her beholden to special interests. This, he charges, makes her incapable of cracking down on the huge banks and multinationals that threaten to capture state power through their lobbying.
Unable to shake off her persistent rival, Clinton has reacted waspishly to these charges, accusing Sanders of “not having done his homework”. For months now, conventional wisdom had it that the Sanders challenge would soon fade away, starved of funds. However, for the last few months, the maverick candidate has raised more money than Clinton, thanks to small donors. In fact, Sanders is fond of saying at rallies that the average donation he receives if $27.
Should he win New York, there are several more primaries where Sanders holds the edge. And then comes California, the most important state in the contest in terms of delegates to be won. Although Clinton leads by 6pc in the latest opinion poll, this is a far cry from her 60pc lead at this time last year. Sanders has made steady inroads into Clinton’s support, and as the California primary is due on June 7, much can change between now and then.
Although Trump leads Cruz by 39pc to 32pc in California, he does badly among large groups like Latino migrants and women. And an important thing to remember about the primaries is that typically, only around 20pc of registered voters actually go out and vote. Those who do tend to be politically aware, and more devoted supporters of their candidates. So while Trump’s message — or lack of one — resonates among angry white Americans, it falls flat with the majority. So much to the rest of the world’s relief, Trump’s chances of moving into the White House are very slim.
Unlike the two-horse race between Clinton and Jeb Bush that we were expecting at the start of this electoral cycle, a number of possibilities have opened up. Are there any more twists left between now and November?
Published in Dawn, April 11th, 2016
