WHILE the country’s economic managers are busy in signing deals and launching projects, an unaddressed crisis plagues the rural economy. The situation in Punjab, the biggest and a better governed province, is much worse than the sliding countryside in Sindh.

Cotton, the biggest national cash crop, has failed and experts are projecting a much bigger dip in the next crop’s output. The final count for the current crop has yet to come, but the official data put it at 9.4m bales, a staggering shortfall of 6m bales against the projected target and a drop of 4.8m bales from last year. The role of Punjab — where production crashed to half from 5.7m bales from 10.9m bales last year — is not hard to guess in the making of this crisis.

Some agriculture experts see the issue rooted in the diverse pattern of landholding in the two provinces. In Sindh, an average size of the farms is bigger than Punjab’s where fragmentation over time has reduced the size of landholdings. They argue that big farms are a blessing in disguise for Sindh as, in their case, enough income is available for investment in inputs, farm mechanisation and productivity.

‘There is no discipline or the monitoring of quality and quantity of farm inputs, or their prices. And farmers do not get a fair price for their produce’

“The ‘vadera’ (landlord in Sindhi) power combined with ambitions of educated new generation translates into hiring of a professional management for better returns,” a retired senior official of the dissolved federal agriculture ministry said, explaining possible reasons of better cotton production in Sindh over phone from Islamabad.

But farmers say South Punjab, known for its cotton crop, has similar land ownership pattern.

A progressive farmer of Sindh, who got 45 maunds per acre cotton yield this year, dismissed the assertion and attributed the difference in production to early crop in Sindh and luck.

“Self-delusion is not healthy. There are exceptions but an average farm in Punjab is better managed. It just so happened that the nature was kind to Sindh this year. An informed, motivated farmer with better access to resources to invest in quality input and the institutional support to market the produce can boost productivity,” Imdad Nizamani, a progressive grower of Tando Allahyar commented when reached over phone.

Economists differ over how cotton loss will affect the matrix of the economy and its growth prospects. But both cotton, a major cash crop, and textiles — the largest sub segments of industry — have a significant share in national output and exports. “The cotton crop production accounts for 1.5pc of GDP and 7.1pc of agriculture value-addition,” says the Economic Survey 2014-15.

Most experts identified climate change in Punjab (too many wet days) to be the key reason for the short crop. Some blamed outbreak of viral disease and pest attack, others cited substandard seeds, high cost of inputs, faulty farm management, low pricing of the produce thanks to manipulation of brokers and middlemen and weakening of institutional support after the 18th amendment. However, they all agreed that a timely government intervention could have contained the losses.

On the scale of cotton output in Sindh and Punjab all kinds of opinions are circulating in the farming circles. Talking to Dawn in Multan Khawaja Mohammad Shoaib of Farmers Vision Forum was critical of the government policies.

“The urban bias of the policymakers in an essentially agrarian economy does not bode well for the country. The chaos is the name of the game. There is no discipline or monitoring of quality and quantity of farm inputs, or their prices. Farmers do not get a fair price for their produce as many market manipulators enjoy patronage of big guns,” he complained.

He said the Punjab government has recently constituted a Cotton Crop Management Group which included representatives of farmers. “Despite the precarious crop situation the body has not met even once,” he lamented.

Shoaib warns the cotton acreage can drop by as much as 40pc in Punjab next season as growers are switching to other crops.

Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) President Khawaja Anis talking to this writer recently in Multan emphasised the need to shield cotton fields that feed the ginneries. “The cotton import bill this year is projected to be $4bn. I see no point in supporting cotton producers of India at the cost of our own people,” he said, criticising textile tycoons who are importing ‘inferior quality’ cotton at a higher price from India but reluctant to pay a fair price to local growers.

Syed Sajid Masud Shah, Director Central Cotton Research Institute, attributed the crop failure in Punjab to wet weather, attack of pink bollworm, poor quality of seeds, non-availability of virus-resistant seed varieties and ignorance of farmers. He admitted that falling lint prices have disincentivised growers to invest even on pesticides.

He said that in Sindh mostly locally-developed seeds were used whereas Punjab farmers preferred copies of old BT varieties.

Mian Mohammad Latif, a leading textile exporter a decade back, shared his thoughts candidly in his Multan office. He said the government was more scared of the glut than of a short supply. “Besides lack of focus, I think that the PML-N government does want the area under cotton to increase,and the output is falling.” He considered it a sorry situation.

Sindh Abadgar Board President Mehmood Nawaz Shah speaking to Dawn over phone from the Netherlands stressed the need to arrest the falling trend of cotton production.

Punjab Agriculture Minister Dr Farrukh Javed said the government was monitoring and providing relief to farmers through subsidy on fertiliser and cash awards under the ‘Kissan package’.

“The commodity prices are under pressure globally but we are open to suggestions and ready to do whatever we can for agriculture sustenance,” he said over phone.

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, February 15th, 2016