ISI-NDS meeting

Published February 6, 2016

GIVEN the outsized influence that the two organisations have on their state’s policies towards each other, the ISI and the NDS coming together at the director level for a meeting is a significant moment.

Clearly, DG ISI Gen Rizwan Akhtar and acting NDS chief Masoud Andrabi have a great deal of ground to cover — and a poisonous mutual history to overcome.

After all, Mr Andrabi is only at the helm of the premier Afghan intelligence service because his former boss, Rahmatullah Nabi, was forced out in December after launching an unprecedented public tirade against Afghan President Ashraf Ghani for visiting Islamabad.

It is unlikely that with the departure of Mr Nabi the NDS has been purged of its ultra-hawkish elements that are implacably opposed to improving ties with Pakistan. But try both sides must and it is a welcome sign that Mr Andrabi has travelled to Pakistan to meet his counterpart and discuss intelligence matters alongside American and Chinese representatives.

What is also encouraging is that the ISI-NDS meeting appears to be part of a broader strategy of high-level engagement,

military-to-military, civilian-to-civilian and leader-to-leader. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and army chief Raheel Sharif have both personally invested time and effort in stabilising the Pak-Afghan relationship and nudging the reconciliation process forward.

Meanwhile, the DGMOs of Pakistan and Afghanistan appear to be trying to work out a new framework for cross-border management. Yet, whatever the breakthroughs at the political level or arrangements forged at the operational one, it will ultimately come down to the ISI and NDS being able to work together — certainly to not work against each other.

Intelligence agencies the world over do cooperate, and even at the nadir of the CIA-ISI relationship some years ago, it was clear that cooperation was continuing where mutual interests were at stake. Drone strikes against Al Qaeda and some TTP targets, for example, did not cease.

Where, though, is the middle ground for the ISI and NDS? Non-interference is the obvious ideal, but it is difficult to implement. There is also a tendency to be in denial of reality.

For all its hostility towards the Afghan Taliban, the NDS serves a government that is seeking political reconciliation with the insurgents. On this side, for all the anger at anti-Pakistan sanctuaries in eastern Afghanistan, is the ISI really creating the space necessary for the civilian law-enforcement and intelligence apparatuses to fight terror when terror seeks to strike inside Pakistan, from Afghanistan, Fata or the four provinces?

Critically, a peaceful, stable and united Afghanistan through an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned reconciliation process would redefine the nature of the Pak-Afghan relationship and the primacy that the ISI enjoys here in Pakistan when it comes to Afghan policy.

Is that profound, though much-needed, institutional change something that the ISI, and the army leadership, is willing to accept?

The questions are manifold, but the answers remain elusive.

Published in Dawn, February 6th, 2016

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