IN the post-World War II era, there is a distinct aversion to secession and the changing of internationally recognised borders. The danger lies in using such events as precedents for further disruptions to the global order. Thus, movements like the IRA in Ireland; ETA in the Basque region of Spain; and the Baloch secessionist groups have received little or no support from the world community, apart from meddling neighbours.

After the implosion of the Soviet Union, the Balkans were the scene of genocidal conflict as ancient ethnic and religious strife bubbled to the surface after years of suppression by an authoritarian regime in Moscow. New states were born out of this eruption; mercifully, they have now settled down, and have been accepted as legitimate members of the international community.

The secession of the province of Katanga from the newly independent state of Congo in 1960 only lasted three years before the self-declared state collapsed. Backed by Belgian forces, foreign mercenaries and overseas mining interests, the mineral-rich province was thwarted in its bid for independence by the refusal of the UN to accord it legitimacy.

However, Bangladesh seems to be the exception that proves the rule. Due to Yahya Khan’s mishandling, his army’s brutal response to East Pakistani aspirations, and the Indian government’s opportunism, the freedom struggle won worldwide support. Once the Pakistan army was defeated, Bangladesh was quickly admitted as a member to the United Nations.

Against this backdrop, we can see that generally speaking, the international community is highly averse to approving the break-up of states, and the redrawing of borders. Nevertheless, situations can arise that demand a divorce as an alternative to continuous domestic violence. Arguably, Iraq is such a state today. The American-led occupation, and the toppling of Saddam Hussein and his Ba’ath government, exposed the fault lines that had earlier been suppressed by a harsh but secular dictatorship.

Suddenly, after years of repression under the minority Sunnis, the Shias found themselves in power. The two communities were soon at each other’s throats, with Shia militias indulging in ethnic-cleansing on a massive scale. In this civil strife, nearly a million Christians were forced to flee. The Kurds in the north saw an opportunity to grab the autonomy they had been dreaming of for decades.

Despite the American pull-out in 2011, things continue to look bleak for the future of the Iraqi state, with sectarian violence taking a massive toll. In reality, there was no such state till 1920 when the spoils of the defeated Ottoman Empire were divided among the victors of World War I. The country now known as Iraq was ruled by the Ottomans as three separate vilayat, or provinces, with governors ruling Mosul in the north, Baghdad in the centre, and Basra in the south.

These administrative units were home, respectively, to the Kurds, the Sunnis and the Shias. And while there was much intermingling of the three communities, separation ensured that sectarian and ethnic rivalries were minimised. By recognising the differences between these communities, the Otto­mans achieved a degree of harmony that has long since disappeared.

When the British cobbled the three vilayat together into a single state and installed a Saudi-born, Sunni prince as its ruler in 1920, they sowed the seeds of future strife. As early as 1932, King Faisal I despaired of unity in the newly minted state:

“With my heart filled with sadness, I have to say that it is my belief that there is no Iraqi people in Iraq. There are only diverse groups with no national sentiments. They are filled with superstitious and false religious traditions with no common grounds between them. They easily accept rumours and are prone to chaos, prepared to revolt against any government.”

Things have only got worse since then. Saddam Hussein’s rule might well have been cruel and despotic, but he did keep a tight lid on the country’s fissiparous tendencies. He also protected the minorities, and gave women educational and professional opportunities that have since evaporated in the harsh extremism of Shia and Sunni clerics.

If the Iraqi state has been hollowed out by endless violence and corruption on a truly mind-boggling scale (it ranks 161st out of 168 countries surveyed by Transparency International), it has been further delegitimised by the militant Islamic State group’s erasure of its border with Syria. As the IS announced after it bulldozed border crossings between the two neighbours, the Sykes-Picot line of 1916 had been abolished.

Given ground realities in both Iraq and Syria, it is extremely unlikely that things will somehow be restored to the status quo ante. Too much blood has been spilt, too many ethnic and sectarian divides opened up, for the genie to be magically put back in its bottle.

However, despite the clear need to come to the rational conclusion that old colonial borders are simply unworkable in a post-9/11 world, and Humpty Dumpty just cannot be put back together again, it is unlikely that the UN will seize the nettle and come to the hard decisions needed to resolve the Iraqi and Syrian crises.

The truth is that we shy away from tough choices, preferring to pretend that everything will be all right in the end. Meanwhile, the killing will continue, and as more and more areas become dysfunctional and move beyond the authority of state control, extremist groups will multiply and cause further mayhem.

One obstacle to forging a consensus is the rivalry among regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, Turkey and the Gulf states. Nor are the major players like the United States, Russia and China on the same page. Thus, the likelihood is that there will be endless talks about talks, but the killing will continue.

Published in Dawn, February 1st, 2016

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