THIS time it’s serious. A full month into 2016 and Europe’s troubles are clearly here to stay, for a very long time.

The influx into Europe of an unprecedented number of refugees fleeing wars and conflict in the Middle East is one very visible cause of Europe’s current disarray.

The EU’s response to the arrival of the refugees remains messy, incompetent, discordant and often lacking in compassion.

However, Europe’s “refugee crisis” is not the only reason that warnings of an imminent unravelling of the 28-member European Union have become louder and stronger.

Other, deeper reasons for the EU’s current malaise can no longer be ignored.

The EU isn’t alone in facing tough times, of course. The US election campaign has revealed a nastiness and pettiness unworthy of the world’s largest economy and dominant military power.

The New Year has seen China’s economy faltering as the country strives to achieve a “new normal” of slower but high-quality growth. And, increasingly, when China gets a cold, the rest of the world gets a fever.

Five years after the short-lived Arab Spring, the Middle East is still in flames. Iran may be coming out of the cold following last year’s nuclear deal but Iranian-Saudi competition for power in the region has sparked myriad proxy wars, including in Yemen, Syria and Iraq.

There is good news in Southeast Asia as the Asean Economic Community sees the light of day, raising hopes that — as China’s economy slows down — the world will discover a new and stronger driver for much-needed growth.

But despite some false dawns, Pakistan and India continue to play a dangerous game of war and peace.

So yes, the world is mired in problems, small and big, urgent and not-so-urgent. And the EU’s “first world problems” may, at first glance, appear of little concern to the rest of the world.

After all, for all the talk of economic crisis and high unemployment, the EU states are still at peace, prosperous and stable.

Make no mistake, however, Europe matters. The EU’s single market is a magnet for global exporters and investors. A further slowdown of the European economy will impact very badly on an already-shaky global economy.

European aid props up many governments, Europe’s “soft power” is important for countries seeking non-military solutions to their challenges and the EU’s focus on human rights helps minorities and civil society actors across the world.

Europe’s survival is no longer assured, however. The breakdown of the Eurozone may have been avoided but the existence of the larger and wider Union is under threat.

For one, the rising bitterness among EU member governments is unprecedented. Criticism of neighbours’ policies which was once sotto voce is now loud and clear.

Here in Brussels, relations between Donald Tusk, the president of the EU Council and Jean-Claude Juncker, his counterpart at the European Commission, have apparently hit rock bottom.

As such, policy coherence is no longer possible. Proposals made by the European Commission on issues such as the distribution of refugees are largely ignored. Decisions taken by leaders and ministers remain unimplemented.

EU leaders have discussed ways of tackling the crisis at six separate summits, but most measures have been inadequate or slow, or both. They include relocation and resettlement efforts, a new border control police and a deal with Turkey to stop refugees heading to Europe.

Even as the Far Right cries doom and gloom a recent report by the International Monetary Fund underlines that the refugees could give a much-needed boost to the economies of Austria, Germany and Sweden by 2020.

Migrants may also fill the demographic shortfall from Europe’s shrinking population. The EU’s active labour force of 240 million would fall to 207 million by 2050, even if migration runs at the present level. If it halts, the workforce would shrink to 169 million.

Such facts make little difference to Far Right politicians and many Eastern European governments whose anti-Muslim rhetoric rings across the EU. Their already growing popularity has surged even further following last month’s assault in Cologne on women by bands of migrants and refugees.

With countries building fences and walls to keep out the refugees, Europe’s much-cherished decision to get rid of internal borders and allow restriction-free travel is under threat. The impact on business of resurrected border controls would be enormous.

The truth is that the refugee crisis is not going to go away. More than a million migrants and refugees came to Europe last year, mostly via Turkey. Although winter was expected to slow the pace, 35,000 have arrived in the first three weeks of January, compared with 1,600 for the whole month last year.

And as if all this wasn’t bad enough, the talk of Britain’s possible exit from the EU is getting shriller.

Some find it is difficult to take talk of Brexit seriously at a time when the EU does indeed face a more important existential crisis.

Sadly, however, anything is possible in the choppy and unchartered waters of today’s Europe.

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels.

Published in Dawn, January 30th, 2016

Opinion

Editorial

Judiciary’s SOS
Updated 28 Mar, 2024

Judiciary’s SOS

The ball is now in CJP Isa’s court, and he will feel pressure to take action.
Data protection
28 Mar, 2024

Data protection

WHAT do we want? Data protection laws. When do we want them? Immediately. Without delay, if we are to prevent ...
Selling humans
28 Mar, 2024

Selling humans

HUMAN traders feed off economic distress; they peddle promises of a better life to the impoverished who, mired in...
New terror wave
Updated 27 Mar, 2024

New terror wave

The time has come for decisive government action against militancy.
Development costs
27 Mar, 2024

Development costs

A HEFTY escalation of 30pc in the cost of ongoing federal development schemes is one of the many decisions where the...
Aitchison controversy
Updated 27 Mar, 2024

Aitchison controversy

It is hoped that higher authorities realise that politics and nepotism have no place in schools.