THESE seem to be uncertain times for Pakistan’s agriculture. Climate changes are putting what agriculturists call farming upside down. In supposedly extreme winter weather, temperatures have maintained a pattern normally witnessed in the spring season, and are confusing the crop growers.

In December 2015, the base temperature rose by almost three to 4°C. The minimum temperature dropped to 5°C during the last year against around 9°C this year. What twisted the picture further was in the upper limit: against 12°C last year, it maintained a steady pattern of early 20°C – at 23°C. The fluctuation between both was 14°C for most of December against 6°C the preceding year.

The first two weeks of the current month maintained almost an identical pattern and the metrological officials are warning that mercury would start rising after mid-January as it normally does, almost skipping the much-needed winter spell that helps rejuvenate most of the fruit plants and wheat tillering.

Hot weather would also restrict vegetative growth, force the crop into early pollination and affect the yield

The final hope of traditional winter weather died with last week’s wet spell, which proved too little and too short to cause any major change; it only refreshed weather rather than bringing mercury down.

According to farmers, wheat tillering has suffered the most especially in case of an early sown crop. Many plants are now maintaining a single stem rather than a cluster. It is winter cold, helped by foggy and cloudy weather that aids plants multiply stems after the germination.

That process has now somewhat missing because of consistent high temperatures during December and first fortnight of January. This can bring the final yield down.

Similarly, the potato growers have delayed the harvesting owing to depressed prices and a relatively hot weather. Normally, cold frosty weather burns exposed parts of the potatoes and force farmers to go for harvesting.

This year, fields are still green and the farmers can wait, but it may result in lower market prices. While the central Punjab farmers are postponing harvesting to get benefit of increased weight, by allowing further growth of potatoes; their gains could be neutralised quickly when most of the crop is harvested in a short span of time.

The delay in harvesting may eat into the time of corn sowing. This would take the crop directly into hot days of March for early maturity. The crop matures on heat units rather than the time span.

Hot weather would also restrict vegetative growth, force the crop into an early pollination and affect the yield. If weather gets hotter, pollen may also get wasted.

The orchard owners, especially those of mango, have their own worries. Their plants have already started bearing flowers, which they normally do after mid-February, because of a relatively hot weather, which is creating spring conditions. They fear that if cold weather returns, the flowering would get burnt and plants would not be strong enough to have another bout of flowers after the cold spell.

If hot weather continues, the plants may start yielding much earlier than due time, hitting the entire natural cycle. The citrus plants are also in the same disturbed cycle, as have started bearing flowers quickly. The entire cropping pattern is thus in for uncertain times.

What makes the matter worse, no one is there to guide and remove the farmers’ confusion because there have been no studies on changing climate pattern, leave alone its impact on individual crop cycles.

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, January 18th, 2016