The local government elections may not constitute the full measure of popular support for political parties but they nonetheless lend some insight into the situation on the ground. There was no surprise in the PML-N bagging most seats in the first round in Punjab or the PPP sweeping rural Sindh.

But the routing of the PTI does come as a shock even to its opponents. The results are not likely to be any different in the second and third rounds in Punjab. The only question is whether or not the MQM will be able to maintain its dominance in Karachi and Hyderabad in Sindh.

It was the first time the local government elections were held on a party basis, lending more zing to the campaign and the actual contest. That also raised the stakes for political parties, particularly those in power. Surely, the dynamics of local government polling with much smaller constituencies are very different from those of parliamentary elections. Biradari, kinship, tribal loyalties, local influence and more importantly the incumbency factor, do matter much more in local government politics.

There is hardly any political party now that can claim to be a genuinely national party.

Therefore, it was not surprising that both the incumbents, the PML-N and PPP, effectively exploited these factors to their full advantage. We have seen in the past too that the party in power invariably managed to sway the local government polls. Though technically non-party based, the 2001 and 2005 local government polls were also dominated by the incumbents.

So, the success in last week’s polls must not be taken as a vote of confidence for the provincial government. Performance or the lack thereof has not been much of an issue in these elections. Yet, the results do reflect some political realities on the ground. It is quite evident that the PTI with all its popular support failed to break the stranglehold of the PML-N and of biradari politics in Punjab.

Most shocking, however, was the debacle in Lahore where the PTI was routed even in its strongholds. One wonders where the youth and women power had vanished. The results in other central Punjab districts were no less dismal despite the party opening its doors lately to the so-called ‘electables’.

Many ascribe it to the party’s inexperience or lack of understanding of the complexities of local politics. But it is much more Imran Khan’s single-dimensional politics of agitation that has affected the organisational work. The party also seems to be in complete disarray with internal conflict exacerbated by the influx of a large number of defectors from other parties. This turning to the politics of opportunism, which has so vehemently been attacked by Imran Khan himself, has caused huge disenchantment among the old guard.

Another major factor that benefited the PML-N was the absence of the PPP from the electoral scene. It is now apparent that the party, which once was a formidable political force in the province, is now almost non-existent in Punjab. More significant, however, is the return of a large number of independent candidates. Most of them are those who could not get party tickets. Perhaps the most interesting contest occurred in Faisalabad where the PML-N allowed the two rival groups within the party to fight it out.

In Sindh, the situation was completely different where the PPP went almost unchallenged in all eight districts. The only worthwhile opposition came from the Muslim League (Functional) whose influence is limited to only a few districts in the province.

There was almost no presence of either the PML-N or the PTI in the electoral field. These parties seem to have completely abandoned this province as they vie for dominance in Punjab. That left the voters with no alternative to the PPP that has almost been reduced to a rural Sindh party. Zardari’s claim that the election results have proved that the party is “alive and kicking” is misplaced. It may only be kicking in parts of the province. The next round of elections in Karachi and other urban centres will be a serious test for the party.

Major political parties dominating different provinces has further reinforced the regionalisation of politics in Pakistan. This had also been seen in the last general elections. There is hardly any political party now that can claim to be a genuinely national party with a significant presence in each province. While the PML-N has become largely a Punjab party, the PPP has a nominal presence in the other provinces.

Certainly the PTI has tried to make itself a nation-wide party, but its focus has largely been confined to KP and Punjab with hardly any presence in Sindh and Balochistan that has remained the domain of local nationalist parties. This regionalisation of politics seems to have strengthened with the passage of the 18th Amendment, which has granted greater autonomy to the provinces.

With most of the power now transferred to the provinces, there is a growing tendency among the political parties to confine themselves to their provincial base. The amendment has decentralised economic and political decision-making down to the provincial level. This provincial autonomy has generated a new dynamic affecting the course of politics in the country.

It is quite ironic that while agreeing on greater provincial autonomy, the two ruling political parties in Punjab and Sindh are not prepared to further devolve power lower down to the local governments. It took more than eight years for the provincial governments to agree on LG elections and that too on the order of the Supreme Court.

Nevertheless, the powers of the elected councils have been drastically curtailed under the new system in the two provinces. It is certainly not devolution in the true sense as the real powers rest with the provincial governments and bureaucrats. Surely, the local governments are not only a constitutional obligation but also an important component of the democratic process. It is only through the devolution of power to the grass-root level that democracy could be strengthened in the country.

The writer is an author and journalist.

Published in Dawn, November 4th, 2015

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