THE initial maximum damage from last week’s earthquake, according to one estimate, ranges in the vicinity of Rs15-20bn. However, the projected number includes the immediate cost of public and private rescue and relief efforts, as well as reconstruction and livelihood support for the victims.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif announced an elaborate relief package for the victims after his visit to the affected areas and daylong consultations with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government, institutions and people involved in the ground operations.

According to initial reports, the death toll is 267 and the injured count is 1,600, while about 11,000 houses are said to have been damaged to varying degrees.

The October 2005 earthquake was far deadlier. It had dealt a massive blow of Rs550bn ($5bn) to the economy, besides resulting in a depressingly high loss of life (85,000), according to estimates by lenders and development agencies, as reported in the media before the donors’ conference back in November 2005.

The physical infrastructure (roads, government buildings, bridges, etc) was intact except for some road blockages because of subsequent landslides — Major Gen. Asghar Nawaz

National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) Chairman Major Gen. Asghar Nawaz on his return to Islamabad after the aerial survey of the northern areas told Dawn that the affected area is vast but the damage is limited to the collapse of already dilapidated buildings and mud houses.

“There were no signs of major devastation in the region. My feeling was that two days of consistent rain had already weakened the mud structures in the far flung places in the mountains, which made them more vulnerable to shocks. The physical infrastructure (roads, government buildings, bridges, etc) was intact except for some road blockages because of subsequent landslides. Yes, some mud house settlements in remote areas perished, but the scale of the damage looks manageable,” he elaborated.

“The intensity of the earthquake on the Richter scale was almost as much as the one in 2005, but its epic centre was so deep underground that we fortunately escaped a major catastrophe. This time, the epic centre was over 150 miles deep in the ground, compared to barely 10 miles in 2005,” he said.

“It will take some time before we consolidate the data collected by our survey teams, but my sense is that the total damage would be Rs1.5-2.5bn. If you include the cost incurred in the rescue and relief efforts, it might double to Rs5bn. To me, Rs15-20bn is an exaggeration,” he asserted.

Muhammad Wasim, who was managing the disaster cell in Peshawar for the Jamaat-e-Islami’s social-work arm Al Khidmat Foundation, claimed to be in touch with volunteers involved in relief activities across the province. A large swathe of area had yet to be accessed 48 hours after the tragedy hit, he said.

“We are still struggling to reach far off settlements that have been totally cut off because of a communication breakdown in the rugged mountainous region. It is too early to throw numbers at this point,” he told this writer over phone.

Noor Ahmed Jadoon, head of the Al Khidmat Foundation in KP, was travelling with a group of volunteers around the Shangla and Batkhela areas. He said over phone that communities needed help as most of the affected people were poor. “We are trying to do all in our means to locate and help the people in need.”

Attempts to reach Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf ministers proved futile as almost all of them were in their hometowns and villages and did not pick up their cell phones.

A few people in the affected areas, when approached through volunteers, particularly mentioned the relief teams of the armed forces for their swift response and for providing relief to the disaster victims.

“They were the first ones to reach the troubled villages in the middle of nowhere and extend a helping hand to the people. I have my reservation on their Zarb-i-Azb and the high level of collateral damage in aerial strikes, but I am convinced of their efficiency in rescue operations and systematic relief drives,” said Azam Khan, whose house was partially damaged in lower Dir.

The acting chairman of the Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA), Brig. Abu Bakar Amin Bajwa, said the involvement of the institution would start once the damage had been assessed. He claimed from his office in Islamabad that the ERRA’s post-2005 work needed to be acknowledged for the lesser loss of life and material in the districts and union councils where it operated.

“The 303 union councils where we had trained about 20,000 volunteers for emergencies and had stores with emergency supplies were the least affected and most efficiently managed during the crisis because of their improved level of preparedness.”

He made a case for strengthening the EERA and extending its coverage to all nooks and corners of the country to contain the loss of life and property hit by a disaster. He also lamented the lack of support and attention to an institution that had earned recognition for its work at multiple global forums.

“The interruptions in the flow of funds and a lack of government attention to resolve issues faced by the ERRA have compromised its performance. It is not an ideal treatment of a specialised agency in an earthquake-prone country that the US Geological survey confirmed is in the most active earthquake zone,” he commented.

The institution is being managed by deputy chairmen since 2011 as the government failed to appoint a chairman.

On his sense of the economic cost of the current earthquake, he said, “I have deepest sympathy for the people affected by the disaster. The ERRA is all set for its call of duty. However, based on the information pooled in so far, it will be absurd to draw parallels between this and the 2005 earthquake in terms of devastation”.

“I am confident that external support will not necessarily be required to deal with the challenge. If the resources are pooled in and managed properly, the country has the requisite institutional framework and expertise to reconstruct, and rehabilitate the victims,” he said.

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, November 2nd , 2015

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