IT’S all about leverage. For years, Turkey has been a supplicant at the European Union’s doors, pleading for admission to the club. Time and again, the Turkish application has been shelved, with several member states voicing their opposition. Ostensibly, the reason was that Turkey would not permit ships from Cyprus — an EU member state — to use its ports. But the true subtext always was that countries like France and Germany were aghast at the possibility of millions of Turkish Muslims pouring into their countries, looking for jobs, under the Schengen free travel agreement.

But now, the EU is seriously considering a three billion euros aid package, plus a no-visa travel facility for Turkish citizens across the EU and a renewal of negotiations for admission to the Union. So what has changed? It has belatedly struck the EU leadership that without Turkey’s cooperation, the flood of refugees streaming into Europe will not stop. So basically, they are trying to persuade Ankara to prevent those in refugee camps from crossing into Greece, and on to other EU states.

This change in the balance of power has encouraged Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to reap political advantage ahead of the Nov 1 elections. These are the second general elections being held within the space of a few months as the earlier one in June failed to produce a government. This is largely because the Justice and Development Party (AKP) the ruling party, failed to secure an outright majority, and — according to critics — dragged its feet over forming a coalition with any of the other parties.

Cynics view the recent outbreak of violence within and outside Turkey’s borders in the light of electoral requirements. By attacking Kurdish targets in Iraq and Syria, Turkey has effectively buried the peace process with the PKK, the militant Kurdish secessionist group. Although Erdogan insists that his air force is also attacking the self-styled Islamic State targets, evidence of this is thin on the ground.

The recent suicide bombing that killed at least 98 people in Ankara is also being viewed through the prism of Erdogan’s ambition to get over half the votes on Nov 1. Dark conspiracy theories are doing the rounds accusing the ‘deep state’ of orchestrating the attacks. Since the peace demonstration that was targeted was organised by Kurds as well as liberals known to be against Erdogan, those subscribing to the conspiracy theory have some grounds for their suspicions.

However, the fact that this dark view of the ruling party has gained any credence at all is a comment on how polarised Turkish society has become under Erdogan. In a recent opinion poll taken just before the Ankara terrorist attack, the AK party was stuck at around 43pc, pretty much its share in the June elections. The other parties were also where they were five months ago.

Erdogan’s opponents allege that by unleashing a renewed campaign against Kurdish separatists, and by blaming them for the ongoing wave of terror, he can gain greater support from Turkish nationalists. But opinion polls also show that a majority of Turks are opposed to their government’s growing involvement in the Syrian civil war.

Over the last few years, it has been an open secret that Turkey has been supporting extreme Islamist groups in Syria. There have been many credible reports of IS fighters crossing the Turkish border at will. Arms and cash from Saudi Arabia and other Arab states have made their way into Syria across Turkish territory. Istanbul is now the gathering point for all kinds of Syrian opposition groups.

Against this backdrop of close links between Turkish intelligence agencies and radical Islamist groups, Erdogan’s critics have fertile soil in which to plant their conspiracy theories. How all this will play in the elections due in a fortnight is hard to forecast. However, the possibility that Turks will be able to travel across Europe without visas is a certain vote-winner. And the prospect of finally joining the EU will be popular with the business community. Finally, the fact that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is going to meet Erdogan in Istanbul this week is a sign of Turkey’s rapidly growing clout.

And yet, the turmoil on its Syrian border is a destabilising factor. When Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was foreign minister, he coined the mantra ‘zero problems with neighbours’ to describe his country’s foreign policy. This is now in tatters. Turkish Cyprus has expressed a clear desire to reunite with the Greek part of the island against Ankara’s wishes. Greece blames Turkey for the flood of refugees crossing over the border. And in Syria, Bashar al-Assad is still president despite Erdogan’s best efforts to topple him. Meanwhile, the civil war has pushed over two million refugees into Turkey.

And now, Iran is set to play a far more active role in the region as sanctions are lifted. As a supporter of the Syrian regime, it is deeply unpopular with the conservative AK Party. And the recent Russian intervention in Syria has caused deep tension with Moscow. So all in all, problems with neighbours have multiplied.

Trying to sail across these turbulent waters is the divisive and combative figure of Erdogan. Although he and his AK Party have succeeded in boosting the Turkish economy over their 13 years in power, they have put the country’s secular constitution under considerable strain. Perhaps their biggest contribution is to have forced the army into the barracks after decades of playing kingmaker.

So clearly, there is much at stake in the next elections. If Erdogan succeeds in getting a majority, his power will be unchecked. He has become increasingly authoritarian over the years, cracking down on the media, the judiciary and the bureaucracy. Sharing power might induce a modicum of humility.

Twitter: @irfan_husain

Published in Dawn, October 19th , 2015

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