DHAKA: South Asian economies stand to lose around 1.3 per cent of their collective annual GDP by 2050 even if global temperature increases are kept to 2 degrees Celsius, experts and public officials warn.

In the second half of the century, the losses are likely to increase to around 2.5pc of GDP, warns an analysis by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

But if temperature increases are allowed to rise above 2 degrees Celsius, losses will mount to 1.8pc of GDP by 2050 and a staggering 8.8pc by 2100, according to the analysis.

“South Asia is at the frontlines of climate change,” said Preety Bindari, the bank’s director for climate change and disaster risk management. “The numbers and the frequency of extreme weather events faced by the region are rising.”

The ADB estimates that South Asia needs around $73 billion annually from now till 2100 to adapt to negative impacts of climate change if current temperature trends continue. Those would see world temperature rise by at least 3.5 to 4 degrees Celsius by the turn of the century, scientists say.

But if countries succeed in keeping temperature rise below 2.5 degrees Celsius, that cost would fall to around $40.6bn annually, the bank said.

Public officials in South Asia say that they are aware of the risk, but adaptation measures are slow as policy-makers grapple with balancing economic growth with climate resilience.

“We know the numbers are dramatic and that we have a lot of work in our hands,” Kamal Uddin Ahmed, secretary of the Bangladesh Ministry of Forest and Environment said.

But “right now the priority is to provide food for 160 million (in Bangladesh),” he said. “We have to make sure we get our climate policies right while not slowing down growth.”

MOVING TO ACTION: L. Chandrapala, director of Bangladesh’s national meteorological department, said that while changing rain patterns and rising temperature levels were now evident, what was needed was broad policy changes that take these into account.

“We know what happening and have a fair knowledge of why it is happening. The next step is to make sure we are prepared,” he said.

That is a view shared by ADB’s Bandari. “There are many priorities for these countries. In such a complex scenario it would be vital that they integrate climate considerations into their development goals,” she said.

Because developing nations are loath to sacrifice growth to building climate resilience, she and other experts advocate that countries look at making their development plans climate friendly rather than trying to create climate resilience through separate efforts.

Mohamed Abdul Qayyum, secretary of the Bangladesh Department of Disaster Management, said South Asia needed an attitude shift as well.

“In South Asia we are still in the reactive mood to climate change. We need to change that to proactive,” he said.

Even as policy makers and governments begin making the slow shift to climate friendly development goals, financial losses are mounting.

If global emissions continue on their current trend, Bangladesh is likely to face an annual economic loss from climate risks of about 2pc by 2050, according to the bank report. That is expected to balloon to 8.8pc by 2100.—Reuters

Published in Dawn, September 11th, 2015

On a mobile phone? Get the Dawn Mobile App: Apple Store | Google Play