A welcome thaw

Published August 29, 2015
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.

BALOCH leader Brahmdagh Bugti’s statement, expressing readiness for talks, was a welcome development which was greeted by everyone wanting an end to the nearly decade-long bloodshed in the province.

While his words in a BBC Urdu interview were music to many ears when he hinted at abandoning the demand for an independent Balochistan and living within Pakistan, even his call for an end to the military-led operation in his province didn’t sound like a precondition.

Peace efforts in Balochistan were also initiated by the PPP government but soon amounted to nought as the army chief then Gen Ashfaq Kayani and the ISI chief Lt-Gen Ahmad Shuja Pasha, both wary of taking on the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, appeared only interested in pursuing the military option while dealing with the Baloch.


Brahmdagh Bugti is seen as a man whose word, as a major leader, has counted a lot in the battle for Baloch rights.


Against this backdrop, it was significant that the Wall Street Journal quoted Brahmdagh Bugti as saying that over the past two weeks Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the army chief Gen Raheel Shareef had both made peace overtures.

Mr Bugti, who has been in exile first in Afghanistan and then in Switzerland since narrowly escaping death in the military action in which his grandfather Nawab Akbar Bugti (79) was killed in August 2006, is a major figure in the Baloch separatist movement.

The current round of conflict was sparked by the elder Bugti’s killing and his named successor to the tribal head’s position, the grandson then only 24, was automatically elevated to a position where he was seen as a man whose word, as a major leader, counted a lot in the battle for Baloch rights.

The Brahmdagh Bugti statement may have marked the possible announcement of a different phase in the Baloch struggle but there were signs something was afoot as a number of developments in recent months were pointing towards change.

First the National Party-led coalition, though derided by many separatists as being happy playing the junior partner of the military, had a lot at stake in terms of its credibility. From day one, the National Party leaders, seen as nationalist-progressive elements in Balochistan politics, made clear their intention to bring peace in the province via negotiations.

Chief Minister Abdul Malik Baloch was openly unhappy with the ‘kidnap, kill and dump’ policy pursued by the army-led paramilitary Frontier Corps and was vocal about his frustration at being unable to stop it. Critics, of course, asked the obvious question: if he couldn’t stop the extrajudicial murder of the Baloch suspected of being separatists, why couldn’t he resign?

It is now clear that the cool and composed Dr Malik Baloch took all punches on the chin while continuing to beaver away at resistance to negotiations, I suspect, in all quarters. Eventually, it seems the military and the federal government decided to throw their weight behind him.

For several weeks now we have been hearing of contacts with Suleman Daud, the Khan of Kalat. He may not have been a hugely significant political player earlier but became one when he seemed to reclaim his pre-Partition position, hosted a jirga of all Baloch tribal figures after Nawab Bugti’s killing, slammed the government, took a hard line and went into exile. Contacts with the Khan were seen as the first hints of a thaw.

Side by side differences started to emerge between key separatists: the intelligence agencies may have infiltrated and engineered differences; the egos or divergent views over strategy of the leaders may have clashed. But all was not well.

With the leaders of the movement such as Brahmdagh Bugti, Hyrbyair Marri and Javed Mengal in exile and Dr Allah Nazar underground the rifts were first evidenced on social media. Where there was once complete unanimity of views at least on the main goal of independence, now bickering became the order of the day.

Simple disagreements on strategy to outright charges of betrayal started to fly on Twitter for example. It began to become clear that those taking up arms against the state of Pakistan, who were once cemented together by their cause, even if they were fighting in their separate geographical spheres, were now becoming suspicious of one another and fragmenting.

Additionally, there were media reports, of course, attributed to anonymous sources in the intelligence agencies that for the past several weeks Dr Allah Nazar has been maintaining ‘radio silence’ with the suggestion he has been incapacitated either by grievous injury or even worse. There has been no independent confirmation of this.

Dr Malik Baloch welcomed Mr Bugti’s statement and said a jirga was being formed comprising key tribal, ethnic leaders of the province to start talks with the self-exiled leader. But there can be no doubt the road ahead will be long and the journey arduous.

There will be elements in the military and its intelligence agencies who will advise their bosses to continue with the policy of applying brutal force to resolve the conflict like in the past because they’ll argue that such a policy has forced Brahmdagh Bugti to make the concession.

Then of course there’ll be several entities in the province, among them virulently sectarian violent groups, who have been doing the FC’s bidding in taking on the separatists, who will feel their pre-eminence threatened if peace is restored. They will do their utmost to undermine the process.

Equally, if not more, significantly there will be groups within the separatist ranks who will disagree with the Baloch Republican Party head. To what extent they’d be willing to go to underline their differences of opinion will be an important factor.

But having seen images of the tortured corpses of hundreds of Baloch men, after hearing of the pain of the loved ones of a huge number of the ‘disappeared’ and, of course, having observed the tragedy of some of the non-Baloch labourers who were killed in the province whilst trying to provide for their needy families, any hint of change is welcome. There has been too much pain.

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.

abbas.nasir@hotmail.com

Published in Dawn, August 29th, 2015

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