IT is a volte-face that was least expected, and one that could have a defining impact on the Baloch insurgency. Brahmdagh Bugti, in an interview to the BBC on the ninth anniversary of his grandfather Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti’s death, has said he is prepared to give up his demand for an independent Balochistan if its people so desire. The separatist leader, who heads the Baloch Republican Party from self-exile in Switzerland, also expressed his willingness to engage in dialogue with the government provided the ongoing military operation in Balochistan was halted and the forces withdrawn. For Mr Bugti to extend the olive branch, albeit with caveats, is a significant development. After all, it was his grandfather’s death in a military operation on Aug 26, 2006 that exacerbated disaffection towards the state among the Baloch and added fuel to the fires of insurgency. The Bugti scion, who barely escaped with his life that day and subsequently fled into exile, is considered one of the most prominent separatist leaders, the quintessential ‘angry Baloch’ who has long been implacably opposed to any option other than an independent Balochistan.

Considered in the light of recent circumstances, Mr Bugti’s conciliatory words are rooted in pragmatism. Several factors have changed the dynamics in Balochistan. For one, the security establishment has ramped up the intensity of operations across the province. It is not difficult to fathom why: the successful execution of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is predicated on securing peace in that theatre of conflict. ‘Managing’ the violence through dubious proxies and occasional security operations is no longer enough. Meanwhile, the insurgents, however well-armed, cannot match the army’s firepower and large numbers of Mr Bugti’s followers as well as insurgents belonging to other separatist groups have been killed in the military offensive. Second, in response to the amnesty announced by the provincial government in late June, hundreds of purported rebels have laid down their arms. While it is difficult to ascertain the true extent of such ‘surrenders’, the spectacle — played up to the hilt by the authorities as a counter-insurgency ploy — must be demoralising to those still fighting the state. Third, and perhaps most crucial, the separatist movement that once appeared an impregnable monolith has fractured over the past year as a result of internal crises. Mr Bugti’s statements on Wednesday could accelerate the process.

All of which is very good news for a government that has recently approached the Khan of Kalat for talks as part of its overtures to bring the ‘angry Baloch’ leaders to the negotiating table. Now is the time for skilful statecraft to capitalise on the opportunity offered by Mr Bugti; with the main sticking point of an independent Balochistan in abeyance, give and take is certainly possible. Getting the military hardware to fall silent and putting an end to enforced disappearances of the Baloch would be a good start.

Published in Dawn, August 28th, 2015

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