Fiscal straitjacket

Published August 28, 2015

THE country has been stuck in a fiscal straitjacket since its inception. Calls for building the state’s revenue apparatus and bringing it in line with the requirements of a growing modern economy have been made since at least the early 1950s. Today, those same calls continue to be made, and in a few places, have become louder. The issue of tax reform has followed a rocky trajectory in our political and economic history; today, the government is struggling to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio relying primarily on withholding taxes and taxes on petroleum products. Calls to come up with a ‘charter of economy’ to build consensus around a set of core economic proposals have also had a lukewarm response in parliament.

Most recently, a new report funded by the UK’s Department for International Development, has tried to take up the cause of highlighting the fiscal emergency the country is drifting towards, but it falls short of its target. For one, it is ironic to note a donor-funded effort trying to remind the country of its growing dependence on donor support. Then the report’s presentation of its core data contradicts itself in different places, leaving it to the reader to check the underlying assumption behind each discrepancy. From the tax-to-GDP ratio, which is given as 9.4pc in the accompanying press release and brochure and 10.4pc in the body of the report itself, to other key fiscal expenditure items, data discrepancies sprinkled throughout the report inadvertently highlight the difficulties involved in building any consensus on economic policy — and if we are not clear on the numbers then the rest of the conversation cannot begin. Getting the numbers right can be a harder job than most people imagine. In Pakistan, the economic numbers themselves have been politicised, creating an environment where building a consensus on a core economic agenda has become even more complicated than it was previously. Not only that, messaging economic challenges in a public space dominated by shrill breaking news is problematic in itself, forcing those who try to indulge in this exercise to resort to some hyperbole which sounds unconvincing to most ears. Nevertheless, the report is an effort in good faith to draw attention to a vital weakness in the structure of the state in Pakistan. The authors’ effort to highlight the unsustainable nature of the fiscal framework needs to continue.

Published in Dawn, August 28th, 2015

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