CANADA heads to the polls on Oct 19 to elect members to the 42nd Canadian parliament.

At 78 days, it will be the longest campaign since 1872. Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper will attempt to become the first prime minister since 1908 to win four consecutive elections.

The voting system

The next Canadian parliament will be composed of 338 seats (expanded from the current 308) following the results of the latest census. The number of districts is reviewed every 10 years.

Members of parliament are elected through a first-past-the-post system — the candidate that comes first in each electoral district, called a riding, wins that seat.

The 338 ridings are distributed among Canada’s 10 provinces and three territories according to the country’s population.

Canada has elected 11 minority governments in its history, and there have also been two minority administrations after governments were replaced during elections.

Turnout has dropped to below 70pc in more recent votes.

Canada’s parliament has an upper and a lower house. Although legislation needs to pass through both houses, and can originate in both houses, the House of Commons is by far the dominant chamber. The Senate rarely rejects bills, and the government only needs to retain the confidence of the lower house.

The Senate consists of 105 members appointed by the governor general on the advice of the prime minister. Senate seats are assigned on a regional basis.

The political parties

Conservative Party of Canada: Centre-right party led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper has led the Canadian government since 2006.

Liberal Party of Canada: Centre-left party led by Justin Trudeau, son of former prime minister Pierre. The Liberals became known as Canada’s “natural governing party”, holding power for nearly 70 years in the 20th century, more than any other party in a developed and democratic country.

However, support for the party has declined over the past decade. Its result in the previous election in 2011 was its worst ever — and the first time the Liberals came in third.

The Conservatives (under the party’s different historic guises and names) and the Liberals have dominated Canadian politics and are the only two parties to have formed a government.

New Democratic Party (NDP): A social-democratic party to the left of the Liberals. Its leader is Thomas Mulcair. The party was founded in 1961, and in the 2011 election it became the official opposition for the first time in its history. Earlier this year the NDP won a surprise majority in Alberta and the party has surged in federal polls since.

Bloc Quebecois: A party focused on promoting Quebec’s interests and sovereignty in the Commons. In the Quebec election of 2014, the Bloc suffered its worst ever defeat after the party, which was in government at the time, called a snap election on the back of strong polls that projected a possible majority. Instead, the Liberals won a majority and Premier Pauline Marois lost her own riding.

The Green Party: Led by Elizabeth May, who in 2011 became the first elected Green MP in the party’s history.

Strength in Democracy: A new party founded in 2014. It currently has two MPs following defections from the Bloc and from an NDP member (also from Quebec).

The 2011 result

In May 2011, the Conservatives won an outright majority following two minority administrations (in 2006 and 2008).

According to Inter-Parliamentary Union data, only 25 per cent of Canada’s MPs are women — which is higher than the proportion in the US (20 per cent).

Turnout was 61.1 per cent.

What do the polls say?

Support for the Conservatives has trended upwards lately and Harper’s party is now virtually tied with the NDP. Meanwhile the Liberals continue to lag in third place.

However, because of Canada’s voting system, it’s all about the contest in each individual riding.

And with the risk of the vote on the left splitting, this will favour the Tories.

A minority Conservative or NDP government appears to be the most likely outcome, though a Liberal-NDP coalition shouldn’t be ruled out.

A note of caution — the polling looks quite similar to May’s UK election, which saw surveys expecting a neck-and-neck race between the Conservatives and the Labour party. In the event, the Tories won a small majority.

The UK, in fact, has a similar voting system to Canada’s, and a long campaign could favour the better-resourced Tories.

The first of the leaders’ debates is expected to take place in August.

On election day, polls are open for 12 hours across the country. The voting hours are staggered across the country’s different time zones so that the majority of results are available at approximately the same time on election night. Polls in the eastern provinces close at 9:30pm.

—By arrangement with the Guardian

Published in Dawn, August 5th, 2015

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