300 million Pakistanis
49
IT is a staggering prospect. As per a recent UN report, Pakistan is projected to have a population of over 300 million people by 2050.
Already, with an estimated population hovering around 190m, the country is among the world’s top 10 most populous states. The fact that the population is so large — and that it is going to get even more crowded by the middle of the century — should make our rulers and policymakers urgently take notice.
Already, the state is unable to provide for its citizens; what will the situation be like when we hit 300 million souls?
Numerous valid questions pop up about how such a huge number of people can be sustained; primarily, how will we feed, educate, house and provide healthcare for all of them?
Also, large populations need impressive growth rates in order to create jobs — ensuring such rates is not something the Pakistani state can guarantee.
Large populations, if not cared for and purposefully engaged and employed, can easily become liabilities and create security issues. Hence if the ‘population bomb’ is to be defused, we need more effective policies to address population growth.
Experts note that the population growth rate has come down in Pakistan, but there is definite room for improvement. Firstly, we need a fair idea of how many people there actually are, as presently most planning is based on educated guesses.
It can only be hoped that next year’s census goes through, and produces a proper picture. Secondly, efforts to educate the masses about family planning need a boost. Outdated ‘cultural’ norms — such as producing children until a male heir is born — particularly need to be addressed.
For this, it is essential to engage community leaders and ulema so that the cultural barriers that stand in the way of better family planning can be removed. The state should not necessarily be telling people how many children they can have; but it can surely point out the consequences of a rapidly growing population.
Published in Dawn, August 1st, 2015
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Comments (49) Closed
Aug 01, 2015 04:15am
Excellent article--but you only lightly mentioned population control. We need to do the population control the old-fashioned way. Nothing to be ashamed of it. President Ayub Khan used to remind it in almost every speech. Now, I never heard from any local or national politician. This is a burning issue. There is no religious camouflage here. This should not be allowed to be resolved by Mullas. Pakistan would become like Ghaza in the coming years, no breathing space left for anyone.
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Aug 01, 2015 05:56am
300 million with a vast number being madrasa aka poorly educated population... this is a cause for concern not just for Pakistan, but for the entire world
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Aug 01, 2015 07:57am
@marnikdha , I wish we could follow the example of India with 1.2 billion shining individuals who are not only a blessing for their country but for the whole world.
On a more Pakistan related note, there should be an emergency declared for population control. Pakistan is already too crowded. I remember in the 90s there used to be lots of ads on PTV regarding 2 bacchay he acchay. I wonder where have all those ads gone?
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Aug 01, 2015 08:01am
At this rate soon we will overtake neighbour !!!!
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Aug 01, 2015 08:11am
No doubt population control is important but to trigger the panic button is is not quite essential. The essential part is to work hard to match the population with resources & development growth. Two of the world's most populated countries have crossed one billion mark yet they are progressing well with their resources & development. Big population should not necessarily be considered a back breaker, it can also be of help if handled properly. Those countries having less human population can immensely benefit by importing manpower from densely populated countries.
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Aug 01, 2015 08:20am
300 million is possible. China's population doubled in fifty years from 500 million to 1 billion. Pakistan's population should come in under 300 million. It will be at least a half billion by 2100.
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Aug 01, 2015 08:23am
@marnikdha .... It will be concern for Pakistan and India.
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Aug 01, 2015 08:25am
Its good news for Pak , As India is going to be most populated country in world. To comoete them we need more human. Human are real assert to any country . More Humans more activity more bigger ecnomy as more people will eat food .
There are many people thought population is problem but its not correct . If we have high rise buliding , all the world population can accomodate in city wqual to Chicago , antropologist says.
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Aug 01, 2015 08:34am
In India too, Population is burning issue. When I was born in 1950 India's population was 400 Million. The small family norm was introduced in late 60s. But nobody strictly followed.
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Aug 01, 2015 08:51am
No sir the population of this nation will be 400 million by year 2035 and by 2055 it would surpass 800 million and by 2080 Pakistan's population would exceed ONE BILLION. Not only Pakistan, by the end of the century the world carrying capacity which is 40 billions people will be achieved and there would be no space for any further increase. Think about that and surmise about the consequences
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Aug 01, 2015 09:11am
population problem for both countries by 2050 Indian population will be 1700 million with 77%-Hindu,18%-Muslim(most Muslim populated country in the world-representing about 310 million),5%(Sikh,Jain,christian,Farsi,Buddhist)
1951-360 million-12%- Muslim,84%-Hindu,4%(Sikh,Jain,christian,Buddhist,Farsi)
significant achievement of secular India is largest minority Muslim population which grows from 1951-12%,2011-15%,2050-18%
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Aug 01, 2015 10:35am
May we celebrate this anticipation or grief. Definitely growing population without resource management could destroy the nations. This be treated as warning and governments should adopt effective measures to control speedily growing populations.
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Aug 01, 2015 10:44am
Population is huge problem for India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Bangladesh is over populated they are controlling population. India controlled population by education. uneducated lower class people have 4-10 kids while educated families have 2 or now just have one. Many communities are having increase in population, while educated communities are declining in number. Pakistan has 3.22 kids, Bangladesh 2.20 and India 2.51. Interesting fact is that Bangladesh is doing better, and thats why they had shown progress too in recent decades. While other bigger concerns are corrupt and failed states like somalia, nigeria, chad, sudaan, Afghanistan etc have above 5.0. They are producing more kids and later we will have more dissatisfied adults who are involved in wrong activities. On the other hand most of progressive countries of north america, europe, japan etc have less than 1.5 or even less than 1.2.
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Aug 01, 2015 10:55am
Who in their right mind would want to start a family in Pakistan? Simply mind boggling.
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Aug 01, 2015 11:03am
Pakistan and Afghanistan have highest fertility rate in Asia. Bangladesh has implemented successful population control program, after the people started fighting for electricity, water, land and jobs. Now, situation in Pakistan for electricity, water, land and jobs will deteriorate further.
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Aug 01, 2015 11:34am
@Ali Shah You missed the number actually; we have reached unto 1.27 billion at last count. so please add those .07 to the shining list :)
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Aug 01, 2015 11:47am
@Ali Shah Hahaha "shining individuals"
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Aug 01, 2015 11:56am
Indian population density at about 426 person per sq.km is about twice that of Pakistan at about 236 person per sq.km. The land mass of India is about 4 times that of Pakistan and the population at 1.27 billion is 7.5 times that of Pakistan at 180 million. Indian population growth per year is 1.2% and for Pakistan it is 1.6% and decreasing. India fertility rate is 2.5 per women and for Pakistan it is 3.0 per women. So its not that Pakistan has a population explosion and India not. India's population demographics are much more dangerous than that of Pakistan.
For Bangladesh the population density is about 5 times that of Pakistan, much worst.
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Aug 01, 2015 11:58am
Forget 2050, by 2022 India will overtake China to be the most populated country in the world. The highest population burden in the world with a current population of 1.27 billion people crammed in a land which is just 35% the size of China.
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Aug 01, 2015 12:06pm
Why are we scared, its good, massive human resource. With an enemy like india we need a decent population base. Population is also important to play a leading role in world affairs.
Economically we have and we are growing. Look at 1947 we had nothing, we have improved a lot.
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Aug 01, 2015 12:31pm
Finally someone has posted on this issue. The writer has greatly mellowed down the impact. By all estimates the population of Pakistan is not less than 200M now. By 2050 it is expected to be 350M not 300M. The population of Pak, BD and India in 1947 was 30, 35 and 300M. In 2015 these numbers are 200, 155, 1280 for the 3 countries. Hence in the same period the multiplication of population has been 6.7, 4.4, 4.3 times. The Total Fertility Rate(Av no of Child/Women) is 3.1, 2.2 and 2.5 as per the latest estimates.
On the primary school enrollment rates are 75%, 99% & 99% in the 3 countries. So not only the population is growing pretty rapidly, Pak has been unable to send them to school. People in Pak often take solace in the aspect that the density of population is less than Ind and BD. But density is a misleading figure. Density/Arable land is a better measure. There is densities are 1051, 2090 and 881 for the Pak, Bd and Ind. Finally water is really short in Pak and this sums up all.
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Aug 01, 2015 12:38pm
And it is projected to come down to 210-230 million by 2100
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Aug 01, 2015 12:54pm
@wajid Its not only about the living space, people have to eat which is why food supply has to increase but being a country with a water deficit which is only going to get worse with the increase in popultion meaning we will turn from a land prpducing surplus food into a country importing grains. Then there is global warming leading to regular flooding, unreliable rains, land degredation and so on. Apart from food scarcity there are other important issues such as pollution, consumtion of natural resources such as petroleum that has to be taken into account! We have only one earth!
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Aug 01, 2015 01:08pm
This issue concerns me deeply. Population growth is of major concern not only for developing countries like Pakistan but some of the developing countries too. At the same time because of the advancement in medical sciences ageing population is also increasing in the world. As stated in the article most of these numbers about the existing population are educated guesses. The first step should be to carry out cencus to determine what we exactly dealing with. Policy making for future generations is on obvious step but at the same time in my opinion population control is more important to concentrate one. By looking at the track record of pakistan in terms of future polic making I think the safe bet would be to work on population control. Even that I think won't be done I know that for a fact.
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Aug 01, 2015 01:48pm
There are enough resources on this planet to easily sustain the lives of 50 billion people but there are not enough resources in this Universe to sustain the greed of one human being.
Population control is the favourite solution dragged out by the liberals. It's human corruption and greed that makes few people fat and remaining to go hungry.
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Aug 01, 2015 02:29pm
I don't think there is any need for family planning and reducing the population rate. China is an example for the whole world, with 1.5 billion population the country is still prospering and the economy booming. More population means more HUMAN RESOURCE. We need to think how to utilize this resource and not to reduce it.
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Aug 01, 2015 03:00pm
@Asim Iqbal How about you spend some time in China,BD or India?
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Aug 01, 2015 03:25pm
After how much duration census is generally conducted in Pakistan? In India after every 10 years a census is conducted..
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Aug 01, 2015 03:50pm
@WAJID , very bad logic. Its not about building and accommodating or competition with India but having the resources to deal with the needs of this size of population.
@Malik, spot on! but the Ghaza example isnt a good one.
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Aug 01, 2015 03:58pm
I put this blame "squarely" on "load shedding" Once this issue is resolved and we have no more load shedding. Then I am sure birth rate will "drop". Public will be able to watch TV and the message of "birth control" will be conveyed via TV once there is uninterrupted electricity!
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Aug 01, 2015 05:05pm
When resources are limited, population control shows up as ethnic/sectratian /tribal wars, diseases and ther natural calamaites. If we do not balance our population with our resouces, nature will do it and it wont be nice.
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Aug 01, 2015 05:21pm
i agree - the population bomb in pakistan is perhaps the biggest impending problem that we have. this has to be controlled on a war footing - for whatever step we make going forward, we will be pulled back 2 steps with this demographic elephant in the room. Something needs to be done urgently!!
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Aug 01, 2015 05:23pm
@hari - yes a population of 18% muslims who will remain 2nd class citizens under the hegemony of a Hindu dominated country.
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Aug 01, 2015 06:19pm
the writer has raised a very important issue. i would like ti suggest a few solutions. it has rightly been pointed out people must be educated and convinced about family planning. apart from ulema, lady health workers and gynaecologists can play an important role in this regard. moreover teachers at college level can impart education in this regard. private newschannels must also broadcast this message during the commercial breaks. seminars must be arranged. finally, we must follow the BD model in this regard.
it is true that human resource is an asset. but uneducated, malnourished and disenfrenchised people can turn into a liability. this must be realised by all , especially the males in our society.
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Aug 01, 2015 07:03pm
This shows we can compete with anyone and on anything.
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Aug 01, 2015 07:07pm
What rulers ? What policy makers ?
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Aug 01, 2015 07:09pm
@saqib Uneducated people don't play any role in world affairs.
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Aug 01, 2015 07:10pm
@wajid Which anthropologist?
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Aug 01, 2015 07:10pm
@AdHawk Apparently, a lot of Pakistanis.
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Aug 01, 2015 07:12pm
@N.Sid There is a world beyond Pakistan, India and Bangladesh.
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Aug 01, 2015 07:13pm
@lafanga All liberals are not corrupt.
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Aug 01, 2015 07:24pm
Population explosion has become an unprecedented threat that the worldwide administrative apparatus seems concerned of it. Over the years,western foundation including multilateral institutions, and the Third world population ministries are eagerly pursuing an international antinatal policy to stabilize world population.
Pakistan must realize what kind of complexity,ensuing from population explosion,it has to encounter in the subsequent years .It must devise efficient strategy to cope with this serious problem .Meanwhile, it should also realise the fact that it has so far been unable to provide the basic necessities of life to the existing population.
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Aug 01, 2015 08:18pm
The situation with India is not much different. Birth control is popular only among the educated, fertility per woman is an unsustainable 2.5. Politicians have stopped talking about population control since Indira Gandhi's defeat in the 1977 elections. Until then there was serious propaganda about population control. In the 60's we had ``Do ya tin bachhe, ghar me rahat-e acchhe.'' The idea of 2 or 3 was replaced by 2 in the 70's and concern for the mother's health was added to the slogans: ``Agl-e bachha abhi nahin, do ka bad kabhi nahin.'' At a time when enormous problems like global warming, intense pollution, water shortage are affecting us, all over South Asia we have politicians arguing about trifling matters.
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Aug 01, 2015 08:28pm
@lafanga As Mahatma Gandhi said...'There is enough in this world for man's needs, but not enough for man's greed.'
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Aug 01, 2015 09:14pm
It is a beautiful edit not only for the pakistan but also for the whole subcontinent. it has missed the male/ female ratio. This too imbalances the law & order. I donot think any Ulema will co operate in population control or family planning. But female education factor does help. The most important factor is that both sibling nations vye each other in armament rather than in economy & growth.
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Aug 01, 2015 09:16pm
@marnikdha Beautiful
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Aug 01, 2015 09:22pm
@seshagiri No alternative like involving Ulemas or Media ad etc can be effective but female education as mother does pay rich dividend.
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Aug 02, 2015 12:16am
According to Pew Research Pakistani population crossed Brazil's a couple of years ago and now stands at 2010 million making it the 5th largest nation. Also, previous UN estimates foretold 350 million Pakistanis by 2050. I wonder which policies government adopted to lower this number by 50 million...or the lack of policies maybe?
Fact: the total amount of humans who have ever lived on earth are 106 billion people. Imagine :)
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Aug 02, 2015 02:16am
Even though population control and related planning is a top priority for Pakistan for its survival, not a single national leader wants to talk about it and the government has no policy on this matter. It is shameful as well as highly dangerous to ignore this issue. May be the sleeping parliament will wake up
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