LAHORE: A fresh monsoon system will centre over lower Sindh from Thursday and is expected to generate widespread rain with heavy to very heavy falls in lower parts of the province, including Karachi, over the next five days.

The flow in the Indus will cross the mark of 500,000 cusecs (high flood) at Mithan Kot over the next 24 hours. Spillovers are also expected and the authorities fear a large-scale inundation of adjoining areas.

More than 380 villages and crops over 29,551 acres in Layyah have been submerged because of high flood in the Indus, marooning thousands of people in the district.

Also read: Widespread rains lash interior of Sindh

According to the Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) in Lahore, the spell of monsoon activity mainly concentrated over Sindh will also cover the rest of the country, generating isolated heavy rainfall in parts of Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Kashmir and Punjab, including Lahore, from Thursday to Monday.

More than 380 villages, crops over 29,551 acres submerged in Layyah

The rain spell is being generated by a mixture of a westerly wave over upper parts of the country, the well marked seasonal low over north Balochistan, moderate to strong moist current penetrating Punjab and Kashmir up to 5,000 feet and the impact of low pressure persisting over the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh over the past three days.

FFD chief Riaz Khan said the low pressure was expected to move towards Sindh but it would also cover the rest of the country.

The FFD forecast widespread rain-thundershower with scattered heavy to very heavy falls in lower Sindh, including Karachi, Hyderabad and Mirpurkhas divisions, over the next five days.

Scattered rain-thundershower is likely in Balochistan with isolated heavy falls in Zhob, Sibbi, Nasirabad, Kalat and Makran divisions. Heavy falls may generate flash flood in rivers and nullahs of the province during the period.

Scattered rain-thundershower with isolated heavy falls is expected in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Heavy falls are likely to generate flash flood in rivers and nullahs of the province and cause landslides in Malakand and Hazara divisions.

Scattered rain-thundershower with isolated heavy falls is likely in Gujranwala, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Dera Ghazi Khan and Bahawalpur divisions in Punjab. Heavy falls may generate flash flood in hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan and in nullahs of Rawalpindi and Gujranwala divisions.

Scattered rain-thundershower with isolated heavy falls is expected in Kashmir from Thursday to Monday. Heavy falls may trigger landslides in vulnerable areas.

Because of heavy rains in lower Sindh, sea conditions are likely to remain rough to very rough along the Makran coast from Thursday to Monday and fishermen have been advised to be careful during the period.

According to the FFD, the Indus at Guddu is likely to attain high flood of 500,000 to 550,000 cusecs from July 24 to 26. The river at Sukkur is also likely to attain high flood of 500,000 to 540,000 cusecs from July 25 to 27.

Mr Riaz Khan said a peak of 459,000 cusecs in the Indus was reaching Mithan Kot from Taunsa. Another peak of 90,000 cusecs from river Chenab is mixing with it at the same point, increasing the flow to 500,000 cusecs. The flow is likely to further increase and there are chances of spillovers at the point.

He said the peak in the Indus had been generated due to enhanced base outflow of 320,000 cusecs from Tarbela Dam. Nearly 100,000 cusecs from river Kabul and 50,000 cusecs generated by rain in Rawalpindi division added to the base flow, generating high flood in the river.

Meanwhile, it continued to rain in Lahore and several other cities in the country on Wednesday. Kakul received 65mm of rain, Chor 47mm, Mithi 42mm, Murree 40mm, Chachro 32mm, Nagarparkar 29mm, Joharabad 22mm, Kalam 12mm, Badin 8mm, Sahiwal 7mm, Okara 6mm, Mandi Bahauddin and Sialkot Cantt 5mm each, Faisalabad 4mm, Gujranwala 3mm and Karachi and Lahore 2mm each.

Published in Dawn, July 23rd, 2015

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