MULLAH Omar’s customary Eid message this year indicates a paradigm shift in the views of the Afghan Taliban on war and peace in Afghanistan. His approval of peace talks marks a clear deviation from the Islamic militia’s earlier hard-line position of shunning any interaction with the Kabul government. The statement has also tried to convey a more moderate outlook on education and relations with the outside world. This is a welcome change indeed, but its veracity is yet to be fully tested.

For sure, the statement has removed any doubts over the Murree talks having the blessing of the Taliban supremo. And that certainly lends greater credibility to the process of reconciliation. An earlier statement that had briefly been posted on the Taliban’s official website had reinforced rumours about the division in the leadership over the talks. The confusion gained further currency as a result of reported comments by some members of the Qatar political office rejecting the Pakistani-sponsored talks.

There have also been questions about whether the elusive supreme leader is even alive or still fully in charge. Nothing had been heard about him or from him for the past several years except for the annual Eid day messages posted on the Taliban’s official website. He had not been in contact even with senior Taliban leaders. Mullah Omar’s prolonged absence from the scene has widened the split within the ranks. Some observers are still sceptical of the latest statement allaying the suspicion.

Notwithstanding these doubts, the representative status of the Taliban delegation to the Murree talks was undeniable. The Taliban team had the endorsement of Mullah Mohammed Akhtar, widely accepted as the deputy to Mullah Omar. A former aviation minister in the Taliban regime and a former shadow governor of Kandahar, he has long been known for his moderate views on reconciliation that pitted him against hardliners.

An important part of Mullah Omar’s message is his appeal to maintain unity among Taliban ranks.

Mullah Omar in his message has presented a long explanation justifying his softening stance on talks with the Kabul government. “Concurrently with armed jihad, political endeavours and peaceful pathways for achieving these sacred goals is a legitimate Islamic principle and an integral part of Prophetic politics,” he declared in a well-crafted statement.

This presents a remarkable shift from the tenor of the message last year that was completely silent on the reconciliation issue consistent with the policy of having no dialogue with the Kabul government until all foreign forces had been pulled out. “The objective behind our political endeavours as well as contacts and interactions with countries of the world and our own Afghans is to bring an end to the occupation,” he explained in the latest message.

Another important part of Mullah Omar’s message is his appeal to maintain unity among Taliban ranks. This may be reflective of concern over the reports of schism within the organisation on the future course of struggle with only small US residual forces left in the country. There are certainly some Taliban factions, particularly those led by a new generation of field commanders, opposed to any peace negotiations.

This inner struggle is not new, but it seems to have intensified with the withdrawal of most of the coalition forces. Last year, Mullah Abdul Qayum Zakir, the hard-line chief military commander was forced to step down in a major leadership overhaul after his opposition to peace talks with the Kabul government. His exit allowed more moderate leaders like Mullah Akhtar Mansoor to assert their authority.

Mullah Zakir rose to prominence after being freed from Guantanamo Bay, in 2007. Though he stays in the leadership council, his powers were drastically curtailed. But he may still have the support of some of the field commanders who believe they can win the war.

How deep the divisions within the Taliban really penetrate is not at all clear. There are conflicting views about the state of unity within the insurgency. Lack of clarity makes it hard to predict things even if the negotiations make a promising start. The reservations expressed by some members of the Qatar political office do not come as a surprise. Such differences are inevitable as the organisation tries to explore a political solution after fighting for more than 13 years.

Another interesting passage in the message is the emphasis on scientific education. “Some people, without having any sound proof, think that the Islamic Emirate is against all new developments, modern sciences and resources,” he declared. This is clearly meant to assuage the fear of Afghans and the international community that the Taliban want to reimpose the retrogressive system rejecting modern education. Yet there is no mention about female education and the protection of women rights.

There are several factors behind this remarkable shift in the Taliban’s position and their willingness to come on the negotiating table after refusing rapprochement. For sure the major reason is the concern within the Taliban leadership that the end of foreign occupation may lead to a sharp drop in recruitment among Afghans who have been fighting a “defensive jihad” against the invaders. A continuation of civil war may not get the Taliban the same level of support. War fatigue is evident.

It is also apparent to the leadership that the Taliban cannot win an outright military victory leading to the conquest of the whole of Afghanistan, or of the approximately 90pc of the country that they held in the summer of 2001 prior to the Sept 11 attacks. A political settlement could bring them into the mainstream.

One other major factor in the Taliban moderating its position is the alarming rise of the self-styled Islamic State or Daesh in Afghanistan. This is not only challenging the government, but also the Taliban. Scores of Taliban fighters are reported to have been killed in clashes as the IS tries to displace the Islamic militia. There is strong concern that the IS will gain more ground if the civil war continues.

Finally, there is now a growing realisation in Islamabad that the security of the two countries is intertwined and the success of the talks is crucial to overall peace in the region.

The writer is an author and journalist.

Published in Dawn, July 22nd, 2015

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