Except for intermittent political fireworks in the darkness of Karachi and entertaining celebrity scandals elsewhere in the country, the national political firmament remained bathed in commercialised piety during the holy month of Ramazan.

A tense wait was palpable, however, for the verdict of the judicial inquiry commission on the veracity of the 2013 general election. The post-Eid weeks appear to be full of politics surrounding the verdict’s ramifications for political parties who will be jockeying for the local government elections in Punjab and Sindh, tentatively scheduled for September.

Some political commentators see the ruling PML-N facing another fiery summer a la last year’s extended street agitation and sit-ins by the PAT-PTI duo. Although, this time, they see the PML-N leadership facing a challenge of a different nature.

It is premised on some remarks heard during the non-stop hearings by the judicial commission. Now the hearing is complete, all eyes are on its final outcome, which is likely to set the tone for national politics for at least the near future.

If the findings of the commission go in the favour of the PMLN, it will help Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif rule the remaining three years of his term with more authority. And if it goes PTI’s way, Imran Khan’s party will become a big magnet for dissidents of other parties.

Indeed, the PTI has already been attracting PPP leaders in Punjab in big numbers. If the PML-N dissenters also join the race, it would make the PTI a potent political force.

“Even if the commission strikes a middle way with the last general elections being marred by irregularities but the PML-N not being found involved in any planned rigging, as blamed by the PTI, hot politics is going to be order of the day,” said an aide to the prime minister, who preferred not to be identified.

Both sides have gone too far in defending their positions during the hearings of the commission and its findings are going to have a major impact on them.

While the nation eagerly awaits for the final word of the Judicial Inquiry Commission on the dispute, due soon after Eid al Fitr, the two sides have been busy gathering their political strength for the upcoming battle in local government elections.

The PTI leadership has been particularly busy in reorganising the party with its national organiser, Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Chaudhry Muhammad Sarwar, former governor of Punjab and the new face of PTI, fine-tuning the party’s leadership at district, tehsil and union council levels.

If the Supreme Court pushes the Election Commission of Pakistan to hold local government elections in Punjab and Sindh as scheduled, the polls in Punjab in September are going to be a hot contest between PML-N and PTI. The frenzy in the recently held elections of the cantonment boards was a prelude, which the PML-N won with PTI as a close challenger.

Since then, the stream of PPP deserters has boosted PTI ranks in all the districts of Punjab, from Narowal in the north to Layyah and Rajan Pur in the south, and the PML-N is surely going to have a run for its money against PTI in the LG polls. Election fever has already gripped Punjab, although the election schedule is yet to be announced.

Ranks and files of the contending parties are gearing up for the contest. Surely, the incumbency factor favours the PML-N in the province, as seen in the recent cantonment board elections.

Therefore, the results of the coming local government elections will only determine the extent to which PTI has strengthened its position at the grassroots level across the province of Punjab.

Unlike Punjab, the local government elections is Sindh will probably be dominated by the political parties which have secured pockets of influence where they have virtually remain unchallenged.

For example, in the city of Karachi it is the MQM. Based on its performance in last general elections, except in the affluent DHA and certain union councils, the MQM is likely to rule the roost.

And the PPP is seen maintaining its predominance in the rural areas of Sindh.

Upsets, are however expected as unlike the general elections, local polls are always contested more intensely.

According to certain quarters, Dr Tahirul Qadri of PAT is planning to stage his own show against the ruling PML-N in Lahore after Ramazan “to get justice for the victims of Model Town massacre.” And if the current level of tension between Sindh Rangers and MQM in Karachi persists, the quarters fear unforeseen developments in the metropolis. Two months of action-packed politics are guaranteed. Let us wait and see who survives and who bites the dust.

Published in Dawn, July 17th, 2015

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