PAKISTAN’S horticulture has been badly hit by global warming and extreme weather, and a major casualty this season has been the mango crop in Punjab.

Mango output has also been affected in south Punjab where fruit plants in Rahim Yar Khan, Muzaffargarh and Multan are expected to produce less by 25pc, 50pc and 60pc respectively this year.

However, the crop in Sindh is comparatively less affected and only a 10pc reduction is likely in its share of 35pc in the country’s total mango output. In southern Sindh, mango production has not been a viable business over the years due to harsh weather, forcing many farmers to abandon mango and turn to crops like cotton, sugarcane and wheat which are giving them better returns.

Punjab produces 65pc of the country’s mango, the export target of 0.1m tonnes looks unlikely to be met. The country has so far exported 41,000 tonnes of mangoes to the UAE, Gulf States, Central Asian states, the EU, Australia, US and Canada. Climatic changes have also hit the European horticulture sector in recent years but they have adopted measures to effectively combat climate change effects.

In addition to major crop losses, bad luck awaited Pakistan at another front. A Pakistani mango consignment of 4.5 tonnes was rejected last month in Amsterdam after discovering fruit fly in the fruit, making the first such instance this year.

The EU had already made it clear last year that more than five rejections will mean a complete ban on Pakistani fruit and vegetable imports in the European markets.

The Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters, Importers and Merchant Association (PFVA) has blamed storms and extremely hot weather for damaging Punjab’s mango production in the current season. Was it the result of mere hot weather or heatwave that struck Sindh and Karachi in June has yet to be determined.

The climate minister Mushahidullah Khan says it is too early to say that it was the heatwave. It is interesting to note that the minister had earlier blamed India’s coal power plants in Rajasthan for causing heatwave in Pakistan. Technical experts foresee more unusual weather events in future such as a ‘tornado’ which visited Peshawar in April and claimed about 45 lives.

Punjab produces 65pc of the country’s mango and the export target of 0.1m tonnes looks unlikely to be met

Climate experts, who are looking into the causes of the deadly heatwave that hit Karachi taking a toll of 1200 lives, fear a similar severe cold wave may also hit the city in the winter that may claim human lives if timely preventive measures are not adopted.

The experts, who are members of a committee set up by the ministry of climate change, will also look into this possibility as well. The experts say that the heatwave was the result of a low pressure in the Arabian Sea which stopped temperate sea breeze from reaching the city. If the sea breeze stops in winters then the cold winds from Kandahar and Quetta will hit Karachi and the result can be equally serious. The sea breeze keeps Karachi safe from hot winds coming from the deserts and also from cold winds coming from the mountains in winter.

Meanwhile, for the first time, the World Health Organisation and World Meteorological Organisation have joined hands to create guidelines for experts and authorities about how to lower the health risks of heatwaves like the ones that visited Asia and Europe. They argue that heatwaves have emerged as an im­portant hydro-meteorological hazard and will remain so, given projected changes in the frequency of extreme heat events associated with human-ind­uced climate change.

Their main recommendation for the affected countries is that they should ‘create heatwave warning systems that highlight the health hazards and inform people about what they should do to protect themselves, and put hospitals on standby for an influx of patients suffering from heat-related ailments’. Such systems exist in several developed countries such as France which introduced an alert system after it was hit hard by a 2003 heatwave that caused tens of thousands of deaths across Europe. However, Europe, is once again struggling with sweltering temperatures. The ongoing heatwave has hit Britain, Spain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland and northern Italy, and has already seen the mercury rise as high as 40 degrees Celsius.

Dr Ghulam Rasul, a climate expert, says that climate change was already causing surprises. “Many things are not clear even to professionals. However, we can develop early warning systems and improve coordination with relevant agencies to help mitigate the losses.”

Dr Qamaruz Zaman Chaudhry, a lead author of the National Climate Change Policy, warns Pakistan may face isolation in the international community if it doesn’t take effective measures to cope with changing weather patterns. The country needs to link all development activities like dams, roads, canals and bridges with climate change; otherwise all the development may go to waste.

Pakistan launched its first National Climate Change Policy in February 2013 to cope with the threats of climate change through adaptation and mitigation measures but has not achieved even a single target so far.

Published in Dawn, Economic & Business ,July 13th, 2015

On a mobile phone? Get the Dawn Mobile App: Apple Store | Google Play