KARACHI: “The Arab Spring demolished two myths about the Arabs: one that they are passive and the other that the only alternative to authoritarian rule is Islamic radicalism,” said retired ambassador Shahid M. Amin at a seminar on Thursday.

He was presenting his paper titled ‘The European Union’s response to the Arab Spring: a missed opportunity?’ at the seminar, ‘The Aftermath of Arab Spring: Impact of EU policies towards the Middle East’, held at the Area Study Centre for Europe, Karachi University.

He began by discussing the term “Arab Spring” that he said was given by the Western media. He likened it to revolutions in the former communist regimes in Eastern Europe where winters are merciless and after the dismantling of regimes it was as if spring had arrived. “Spring signifies liberty. In the Arab World, the thrust of the Arab Spring was the same. That is to replace authoritarian regimes of ageing monarchs and rulers by democratic ones where there is freedom of thought and expression, human rights and a corruption-free society.”

Talking about his first-hand experience as a diplomat in Libya under Muammar Qadhafi’s rule in the early 1980s, he said: “Qadhafi’s rule was full of cruelty and torture. I wrote a report in 1982 in which I had written that the day he goes people will be dancing on the streets.” He ruled for nearly 42 years and Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak for almost 30 years and hence there was deep-seated resentment against these rulers. “The populace of the Arab Spring-affected areas was unhappy due to widespread unemployment and presence of corrupt leaders.”

Variations in Arab Spring

Highlighting the factors that gave impetus to the Arab Spring particularly in Egypt, Mr Amin said: “Young Arabs created the momentum, the middle class gave the critical mass, the well-organised Islamists gave tenacity and brought organisational skills and the internet helped in spreading the movement.” Thus it dispels the two main widely-held notions of the Arabs.

Attempts to generalise Arab Spring in a region that extends from Egypt to Mauritania should be eschewed, he said. This is because “there have been variations in Arab Spring in Egypt, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen and Bahrain.”

He also discussed the reaction of Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, in dealing with the uprising and its after-effects in their territories. “It is popularly said that Saudi Arabia has emerged as the leader of counter-revolution. Gulf states, it is said, have doled out a lot of money to quell the rebellion within their borders.” But this was not the only reason why the uprising hadn’t happened in the Gulf states with the exception of Bahrain, Mr Amin said, adding that “the Arab Spring continues to emerge.”

Redrawing the map

Reviewing the progress of Arab Spring, he said that Tunisia alone achieved democracy. “The Islamist Ennahada party took over after Ben Ali was toppled in 2011. In the second round of elections, the party was defeated and it graciously accepted its defeat.” Egypt being the pivot of the Arab world was still in turmoil, he said. “Mubarak was toppled and replaced by Morsi. Morsi was violently removed and replaced by General Fateh Sisi. Morsi is awaiting death sentence. Sisi does have popular support but with the muscle of the army.” There’s Mubarakism without Mubarak in Egypt, Mr Amin said, adding that Libya was also not faring well. “The Libyans got rid of Qadhafi but Libya has since then lapsed into instability and militia rule.”

Analysing the tumult in Libya, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain, Mr Amin said: “When dictatorships crumble, the underlying conflicts and divisions, which were brutally suppressed by the dictators, come to the fore. In Libya, for instance, the tribal conflicts have come to the surface. In the Middle East region historic rifts are reappearing. Attempts are being made to redraw the map.”

Finally, he dwelled upon the theme of his paper about EU’s response. According to him, it was indeed a missed opportunity since France initially continued to support Ben Ali’s regime in Tunisia and was critical of the freedom movement. But later France acknowledged the revolution and announced its full support to it, he said.

The EU was in a dilemma as a number of foreigners fighting in Syria alongside the Islamic State were from Europe, said assistant professor Moiz Khan of KU’s history department.

“Nearly 20 per cent are from Europe with the largest number from France. This has made them fearful because when these foreign fighters return home it could have serious consequences,” he said.

With respect to EU’s response, Prof Khan said it was two-fold. One was imposing sanctions on the Assad regime and the other is to provide financial assistance to the humanitarian crisis, in the form of refugees and IDPs, emerging because of turmoil in Syria. Giving an interactive presentation on ‘The Civil War in Syria as a Consequence of Arab Spring’, he said there were different variables at play in Syria. “There is a sectarian tug of war going in the country that is very dangerous. It is not a new phenomenon as one can find parallels in the rise of Protestantism in 1517 and the consequent waves of sectarianism, which led to a lot of bloodshed. Regional politics is another variable in the context of Syria and the Arab world around it.” He also told the audience the Arab Spring was similar to the French revolution that was copied by other parts of Europe and it took nearly 100 years for Europe to emerge from it.

He then showed a series of maps that clearly explained the sectarian fault lines in Syria and the pathways of oil and gas pipelines that are also fuelling the civil war between different factions controlling different regions of the country.

Mr Khan explained the Syrian crisis did not emerge overnight rather it unfolded in three stages: “During the early 2011, there were protest against Bashar al-Assad. Initially, there was no violence but then it transformed into violent upheaval and then to brutality.” He reminded everyone that at one stage the brutality had been raised to chemical warfare. “Now it is a radical religious conflict due to the Islamic State.”Others who read their papers included Dr Tanvir Khalid on the Euro-Mediterranean partnership and Munazza Kazmi on the background and context of EU’s neighbourhood policy in response to the Arab Spring.

The seminar was held in collaboration with Hans Seidel Foundation.

Published in Dawn, May 29th, 2015

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