On Lahore’s Jail Road, opposite the Lahore College for Women University, a Doppler radar sticks out like a landmark. The radar is erected upon a tower which hosts the monitoring staff of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). Their job: update data on any development in weather patterns across the region every 30 minutes.

This is the PMD’s Flood Forecasting Division (FFD), one of the six specialised early warning centres operated by the Pakistan government.

A narrow flight of stairs leads to the monitoring room which houses about 12 staff members, most of them working on computers to keep an eye on any new development in weather patterns. They gauge these developing weather patterns through satellite images and data provided by the radars in case of rainfall. The Met Office staff works round the clock.

With Punjab perennially vulnerable to floods, an early warning system in Lahore issues flood advice on an hourly basis

“The radars show only how much rainfall has occurred, they don’t give any predictions. The rain forecast is made through the analysis of satellite images that are received online,” explains Chief Meteorologist Akram Anjum.

- Photos by Arif Ali/White Star

Doppler radars, which exist only in Lahore and Mangla, tell the direction of the weather system while the other radars in Sialkot, Rahimyar Khan, Dera Ismail Khan and Karachi provide information regarding rainfall.

“We keep an eye on the weather pattern; when any new pattern develops in the Bay of Bengal and reaches Rajasthan (India), we monitor whether it would cross over to Punjab or if it would move towards Delhi. It takes six or seven days to reach Pakistan from its point of origin (Bay of Bengal) and it is monitored on a day-to-day basis,” says the chief meteorologist.

He adds that a warning is issued immediately if the weather pattern having rain heads towards Pakistan from India.

Last year, the FFD had issued a flood warning on Sept 3 that a flood situation was expected from Sept 5 to 7, and 250 officials from various government departments concerned were faxed. “The flood warning is updated on a hourly basis while the flood situation is updated on a daily basis,” says Anjum.

“India has the right over water in two of the rivers, the Sutlej and the Ravi, and the flood situation in them depends on India releasing water into them. Indian officials have to inform us before releasing water, and they do take care of that.

“India has the right over water in two of the rivers, the Sutlej and the Ravi, and the flood situation in them depends on India releasing water into them. Indian officials have to inform us before releasing water, and they do take care of that,” says the chief meteorologist, adding that it takes two and a half days to reach the Sutlej flood in Pakistani plains.

- Photos by Arif Ali/White Star

“In my 17 years of service, India never released water into the Ravi as it has dams on the river on their side. Whatever water comes in the Ravi in the rainy season comes from nullahs in India that come after the dams,” claims another official.

In routine and in emergency situations, the FFD also coordinates with the Punjab Irrigation Department and Wapda.

“The Irrigation Department sends data every six hours or even on hourly basis in a flood situation, which is shared with Wapda that has a small section in the Met Office,” explains Anjum.

“When any new pattern develops in the Bay of Bengal and reaches Rajasthan (India), we monitor whether it would cross over to Punjab or if it would move towards Delhi.

Besides the online systems, one staff member works away diligently on paper, maintaining a weather chart and keeping it updated. “The manual system is kept as security; what if there is some issue with the online system when we are in the midst of an emergency? As a routine, we have been using the online system for decades now,” says the chief meteorologist.

Talking about recent rain devastation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Anjum describes the cause as a tornado for which, he says, no forecasts can be made. Had it been rain or even a dust storm, the Met Office could have predicted it earlier.

Met Office staff bring the elements together to gauge the threat of floods - Photos by Arif Ali/White Star

Anjum dispelled the impression that in Pakistan, forecasts regarding floods are not given at a proper time, which in turn causes devastation at a massive level.

“Floods can’t be stopped, they can only be managed to keep the losses to a minimum. Floods happen when rivers receive water beyond their capacity and the extra water can be managed through dams and other water reservoirs,” argues Anjum.

“The rain forecast is correct more than 90 per cent of the times because it is based on scientific methods. Clouds are monitored when they are 400km away, and satellite images and data is fed into models (software) that show their position on a day to day basis for the next seven days,” he says.

Suddenly, a power outage cuts short our conversation. The staff too stops working, as all of them, except one, were working on computers. It turns out, tragically so, that the floods early warning system has backup power supply only in the “floods season.”

Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, May 24th, 2015

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