THE geopolitics of western South Asia — Afghanistan, Pakistan, India — is mostly a case of politics undermining geography.

The staggering potential trade and economic linkages among one and a half billion people in the three countries is seemingly forever thwarted by the inability of the political and security establishments of the three countries to come together and find mutually beneficial solutions.

This week those contradictions and complications have once again been apparent. With Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in India on a three-day visit in search of boosting trade and Indian investments in Afghanistan, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif offered his most downbeat assessment of the state of India-Pakistan relations yet.

Also read: No sign of India resuming dialogue with Pakistan: PM Nawaz Sharif

In an interview with the Saudi Gazette, Mr Sharif not only suggested that the Indian government has not reciprocated his desire for improving relations, but that there is “no sign of India desiring resumption of dialogue with us”.

The Pakistani prime minister is correct: the Indian government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has baulked at every opportunity to engage Pakistan, preferring instead to pander to domestic politics, whether it be in India-held Jammu and Kashmir or about using even legitimate concerns vis-à-vis terrorism as a cover to appear tough on Pakistan.

Surely, the one lesson that has been evident in decades of on-again, off-again India-Pakistan relations is: dialogue is the only option.

Both sides have legitimate concerns about and demands of the other and not talking will not make those issues go away.

In fact, not having a dialogue only strengthens the hand of the hawks in both countries, increasing the risk of conflict.

Yet, for all of India’s reluctance to engage Pakistan, it is also true that Mr Sharif has done little to try and break the impasse.

Hesitation at home, perhaps because of the army-led security establishment’s unwillingness to engage India at the moment, translates into weakness abroad. Where once the prime minister envisaged the Lahore Declaration, it now appears that pro-activeness and determination are missing.

Perhaps the key for now is to prevent a fresh scramble for influence in Afghanistan by Pakistan and India from breaking out.

Afghanistan needs economic assistance, trade and investment and what strengthens Afghanistan in those areas should be welcomed by Pakistan, rather than stoking old fears of encirclement by the India-Iran-Afghanistan nexus.

President Ghani has rightly reached out to Pakistan and has every right to further his country’s interests by boosting trade and investment ties with India.

Security and the economy are not just interlinked inside Afghanistan, but in the latter’s relations with India and Pakistan too. Pakistan can help on the security front in return for its own security interests vis-à-vis India not being compromised, while Indian investments in Afghanistan can bring the kind of economic stability inside the latter that could help improve internal security.

It could be a win-win-win scenario — if the leaderships of Afghanistan, Pakistan and India choose to do the right things.

Published in Dawn, April 30th, 2015

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