EVEN as the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government was battling the impact of unseasonal rains, which have led to destruction of billions of rupees worth of standing crops and growing number of farmer suicides, there was grim news for the administration last week, with the MET office predicting ‘below normal’ monsoon, the second consecutive year for this to happen.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which in a rare move accepted that the El Nino phenomenon could result in below normal rainfall, warned that the south-west monsoon — set to advance towards the end of May or early June — would be 93pc of the long period average (LPA).

The IMD believes that there is a 70pc chance that El Nino will continue during the four-month monsoon. According to the weather office, El Nino has affected rainfall, reducing it to below normal, eight times in the past 14 years. Last year, for instance, India experienced deficient rainfall at 88pc of the LPA.

The MET officials said parts of the north-west and central India will be affected because of less rainfall, though the north-east and the south are expected to get normal rainfall. The southwest monsoon is crucial for the livelihood of a majority of Indians, who depend on agriculture. The Indian economy is also dependent on the rains, as a good season boosts demand for a range of products and services in rural areas.

But the last few weeks, when unseasonal rains and hail damaged crops in many northern and western states, have spelt doom for hundreds of thousands of farmers. It has also triggered off a spate of suicides in some states. A farmer from Rajasthan hung himself from a tree in the national capital, where he was attending a farmer’s rally organised by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and which was being addressed by Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal.

The NDA government is facing stiff opposition from the Congress and other parties, which have accused it of ganging up with industrialists to snatch land from farmers. The BJP is itself partly to be blamed for the perception being created by the opposition that it is anti-farmer.

While the party backed the previous, Congress-led government’s move to introduce a new land acquisition act last year (even though it knew that the legislation would make it virtually impossible for large land parcels to be acquired for public projects and for industrial development) it has gone about amending the law — making it easier for land to be acquired for public purposes — in a ham-handed manner, without taking the opposition into confidence, it is alleged.

The Congress, which has been facing a series of electoral losses in recent months, sees an opportunity in grabbing the land acquisition amendment bill to portray the BJP as anti-farmer. The unseasonal rains and the destruction that it has wrought in many states have resulted in anger among farming communities, which is now being capitalised by the Congress and other parties.

MAHARASHTRA, which accounts for the largest number of farmer-suicides in the country, has seen more than 600 farmers take their lives so far in 2015. Vast swathes of land in backward regions such as Vidarbha and Marathawada have for decades been neglected, with corrupt politicians and bureaucrats siphoning off billions of rupees that were allocated for irrigation.

State governments over the past 50 years have focused on developing an extensive irrigation network in western Maharashtra, and politicians from the region have dominated state politics. But instead of focusing on rectifying the mistakes of the previous Congress regimes and trying to help destitute farmers by launching irrigation projects, the BJP-led coalition in the state is more concerned about banning the consumption of beef and ensuring that Marathi films are shown during peak hours at multiplexes.

Farmers resort to drastic measures like suicide in the state’s backward regions after successive failure of the rains. Many of them are indebted to moneylenders — most of whom have close links to political parties — and are forced to borrow heavily. There is poor access to banks and other financial institutions, so they are forced to depend on moneylenders.

Most poor farmers in India also do not have access to crop insurance. So every time the rains are deficient, or there is unseasonal rainfall, their crops get destroyed and they have to seek help from the government.

Though both the centre and the state governments allocate billions of rupees every year for the farm sector, the money somehow fails to reach the needy. A recent study by a trade body estimates that less than a fifth of Indian farmers have access to crop insurance. Many farmers are not even aware about the schemes and the few that do cannot afford to pay the premium.

Some of the well-to-do farmers who buy such policies also complain that the process of claiming insurance is also complicated and they have to wait for years for their claims to be settled.

After the recent spell of bad weather, three states — Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana — have sought more than Rs100bn from the National Disaster Response Fund to provide relief for farmers. But there are several other states including Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal that are also likely to stake claims from the central government.

The destruction caused by the erratic weather has also led to huge losses in the farm sector. Mango crops, for instance, have been destroyed in many states at the height of the season. Similarly, rabi crops including wheat have also been damaged. While inflation is currently under control, the government is worried that shortages could lead to a spike in food prices later during the year.

Published in Dawn, Economic & Business, April 27th, 2015

On a mobile phone? Get the Dawn Mobile App: Apple Store | Google Play