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Few by-elections have drawn greater interest than the one scheduled for Karachi’s NA-246. After a long time the Muttahida Qaumi Movement faces a formidable challenge in its bastion. It is a critical test for the party that has ruled the constituency unchallenged for the past three decades. If pre-poll rallies are any indicator the contest is wide open,
For the MQM, the stakes are much higher. The party cannot take the seat for granted anymore. Its main powerbase is under threat and any setback could lead to a domino effect loosening its stranglehold over the rest of the city.
The outcome of the NA-246 by-elections could change the political dynamics of not only Karachi but the entire province. The only saving grace for the MQM is that it could scrape through in a three-way fight.
Read: Karachi's NA-246 by-poll: A three-way contest
Whatever the outcome of the by-election, the MQM appears to be on the back foot for the first time. The Rangers raid on the party headquarters and the statement of death-row prisoner Saulat Mirza implicating top party leaders in a murder case has jolted the party, causing demoralisation among its supporters and voters.
Notwithstanding large participation in its rallies, the party appears to be losing its political appeal because of widespread charges of being involved in serious crimes and not living up to its promises despite being part of the central and provincial government for so long. The fast-changing demography of Karachi and the emergence of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf as a strong political force has further added to the MQM’s predicament. The party’s narrow ethnic-based politics has restricted its claim of being representative of the urban middle class in the province.
Whatever the outcome of the by-election, the MQM appears to be on the back foot.
It was after the 2013 elections that the PTI emerged on the scene as a significant political force in the city securing one national and four provincial assembly seats. Besides, it received a sizeable number of votes in many constituencies in the central districts considered the MQM fortress.
An unknown PTI candidate received more than 33,000 votes in NA-246 despite the alleged strong-arm tactics of the MQM. This was indeed an impressive show given that no senior PTI leader dared to campaign there. It was certainly an indicator of the changing political environment in the city. Some MQM leaders privately admit that even their family members voted for the PTI.
There have been some significant developments since then dealing a serious blow to the MQM. The crackdown on the party’s alleged militant wing and arrest of its supporters on criminal charges has pushed the party into a corner. The raid on Nine-Zero, the party headquarters, and the arrest of several alleged criminals from there has been damning for its political standing. Altaf Hussain’s theatrics during his public speeches and his investigation by the British police in a money-laundering case has caused embarrassment to many party members.
For sure, the MQM is facing the brunt of the ongoing operation in Karachi by the law-enforcement agencies. But this crackdown is quite different from the military operation in 1992, the objective of which was to divide and completely wipe out the party.
That attempt failed and the party returned with greater strength within a few years’ time despite Altaf Hussain and other party leaders taking asylum in Britain and the United States. There is, however, no doubt that the support of the military establishment during Gen Musharraf’s regime also helped revive the MQM.
This time the operation appears more calibrated and aimed at defanging, and not dismantling, the party. The muted reaction of the MQM over the raid on its headquarters and alleged extra-judicial killings of its activists indicate that the party does not want to take on the establishment that may invite more repression.
Altaf Hussain’s blow-hot-blow-cold stance does not bother the establishment much. Many party leaders acknowledge that any confrontation would have disastrous consequences. The party cannot even play the victimisation card as it did in 1992.
Also read: JI-PTI failure to form election alliance may divide anti-MQM vote
Surely the crackdown has produced some desired results, removing the fear of the MQM that had prevented rival political parties from challenging the party publicly. Not surprisingly, even Imran Khan would need to seek permission and avoid any direct criticism in PTI rallies in Karachi. Now with that fear gone, both the PTI and Jamaat-i-Islami are able to hold public rallies in the MQM heartland and openly challenge the party’s domination.
The JI has traditionally had a dedicated vote bank in central Karachi, the venue of the turf battle. The Jamaat boycott in the 2008 and 2013 (partial) general elections may have affected the party’s vote bank and it remains to be seen whether it will regain lost ground. The by-election provides it an opportunity to test its strength.
Meanwhile, the PTI has also made significant inroads into the constituency. But the divide would certainly diminish their chances in the trilateral fight. It is likely that the MQM may still be able to retain the seat, but come out badly bruised in this electoral contest. It is indeed a moment of reckoning for it.
It would, however, be a grave mistake to write off the MQM completely. It may be down, but is not out. The long-term prospects of the party maintaining its hold on the city in the ethnic and political environment do not seem promising. Yet its grass-root support among the Mohajir lower middle class must not be underestimated. It has shown great resilience in the past, though the situation is far tougher now.
The by-election for NA-246 is part of the battle for Karachi. The MQM is fighting to defend its power base. The challenges are formidable, but the turf battle will not end with these by-elections. It is just the beginning, not the end, of a long-drawn battle.
The writer is an author and journalist.
Published in Dawn, April 22nd, 2015
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