DUBAI: Saudi-led airstrikes alone are unlikely to crush Iranian-backed Yemeni rebels, but a ground incursion would risk a bloody “quagmire” and escalating tensions with Tehran, according to experts.

Saudi Arabia pledged to do “whatever it takes” to defend its ally, President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi after launching aerial raids against the Huthi fighters and their allies.

Despite Saudi Arabia’s formidable firepower, analysts say dropping bombs alone is of limited effectiveness.

“History shows that air strikes without corresponding ground forces do not produce a decisive victory,” said Frederic Wehrey of the US-based Carnegie Endow­ment for International Peace.

He said this week’s raids appeared to be aimed at fixed, pre-identified targets like air bases and command centres, rather than mobile Huthi units, urban fighters or supply lines. The coalition said that anti-aircraft defence systems, missiles and artillery positions “were completely destroyed” on the first day of strikes.

But the raids risk provoking a backlash among the civilian population if the death toll rises.

Officials at the rebel-controlled health ministry said on Friday that “a large number” of civilians had been killed in more than 24 hours of Saudi-led raids.

“If Saudi Arabia relies only on air strikes and civilian casualties start mounting, they will lose support very, very quickly,” said Sultan Barakat, research director at the Doha-based Brookings Institution.

‘No clear exit’: Sending in ground troops is seen as a last resort given the risks.

“It is hard for me to see the Saudis deploying ground forces to eject the Huthis, given the likelihood of a quagmire without a clear exit,” said Wehrey.

A possible exception would be a buffer zone on the Saudi-Yemeni border, he added.

A Saudi spokesman for the Arab coalition carrying out operation “Decisive Storm” told reporters on the first day of strikes Thursday that there were no immediate plans to put boots on the ground. A protracted conflict in Yemen could also empower Sunni extremists in the impoverished and deeply tribal country.

“Just crushing the Huthis will change the factional dynamics, which could help ultra-radical Sunni groups,” said Jon Marks, a Middle East expert at London-based think-tank Chatham House.

Published in Dawn, March 28th, 2015

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