Analysis: When a chief minister gets his sleep ruined

Published March 1, 2015
PESHAWAR: KP Chief Minister Pervez Khattak addressing a press conference regarding investment avenues in light of Dubai-KP road show for exploring maximum investment for province, at CM House. INP PHOTO —
PESHAWAR: KP Chief Minister Pervez Khattak addressing a press conference regarding investment avenues in light of Dubai-KP road show for exploring maximum investment for province, at CM House. INP PHOTO —

Pervez Khattak, the Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, opted not to go to Dubai for last week’s maiden road show to attract foreign investment to a province that has been ravaged by more than a decade of terrorism, blood and mayhem.

By his own admission, his sleep has been ruined; not by the possibility or otherwise of foreign investment pouring in, but by investors of a different kind out to lure disgruntled lawmakers in his province to vote for wealthy candidates, ready to open up their briefcases full of cash.

“My sleep has been ruined,” he told leaders from the main opposition groups last week at the Governor’s House – the venue of a last-ditch huddle to work out a mutually agreeable formula for seat-sharing to end horse-trading. Keeping a tab on his lawmakers, the largest group in the KP Assembly, is nerve-wracking and taxing.

The huddle failed. Not surprisingly. While all those in attendance wanted a formula that could keep them all in good humour, none wanted to concede an inch.

Read: Imran lavishes praise on KP in bid to attract investment

The Pakistan Peoples Party wanted more than it could bargain for, given the number of its parliamentarians in KP. Its parliamentary leader Mohammad Ali Shah Bacha made it plain: he was not authorised to negotiate its demand for two Senators.

At the time, technically, a candidate seeking election on a general seat was to require 17 votes, thus for the PPP which has only five seats in the KP Assembly, fielding and demanding two seats, would have required 34 votes – that is – 29 more votes.

Although the Awami National Party, which has five seats in KP, has conveniently chosen to support the PPP candidates in return for support for its own candidate contesting on a woman seat, the PPP still needs 24 votes. Where would the rest of the votes for PPP candidates come from? This was the mind-boggling billion rupee question.

Fazlur Rehman’s Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam, with 16 members, could have eked out one seat but then fielding two candidates – his brother Maulana Ataur Rehman and a wealthy Manzoor Khan – on general seats, meant that both would have to get 34 votes, 18 short of the party’s strength in a house of 124.

The case of the two brothers from Dera Ismail Khan is equally interesting. One of them, Aamar Ahmad Khan, has been given the Sherpao-led Qaumi Watan Party’s ticket, while the other, Senator Waqar Ahmad Khan, is contesting as an independent.

Given the family’s riches, including the reported £50 million worth of London’s most expensive properties and past successes of returning to the upper house with little or no political support, there is no reason why one or both siblings will not repeat their past performance at the ballot.

PTI’S VULNERABILITY: The Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf has the numerical strength to get its candidates on general seats elected without much ado, but ironically it is its majority which has made it all the more vulnerable. Hence the hullabaloo by its leadership about horse-trading. And there are reasons.

The party has a so-called group of Like-Minded MPAs, comprising aspirants of ministerial slots, disgruntled members unhappy with Khattak’s style of administrative control, lack of development funds, jobs, the respect that they say they never got and on top of that the arbitrary decisions, they say, are imposed upon them from atop without even a whisper into their ears.

One such decision they openly grumble about is the award of ticket to Liaqat Khan Taraki – father of KP’s senior health minister Shahram Khan Taraki, whose Swabi-based Awami Jamhouri Ittehad Pakistan has only five members in the provincial assembly.

So vehement is the opposition to the decision that the cigarette-manufacturing Taraki clan decided to merge their party into PTI. But this has not helped stymie the opposition.

Then there are some, whose feathers have been ruffled by statements from the party chief, Imran Khan, not once but twice – of not granting tickets to some of the less desirable lot. They are worried. Worried because they fear they may not get the party ticket again –worse if they stand a chance of getting re-elected – given whatever the party’s performance is in KP.

This has put PTI’s other coalition partner, the Jamaat-i-Islami, in an awkward situation. The JI, with eight members in the provincial assembly, has fielded its chief, Sirajul Haq, for a general seat. It is banking on the PTI for support.

Since rumours are aplenty about votes purchases, the JI is so nervous that its leadership has asked PTI to hand them a panel of the most trustworthy and credible members to ensure its emir’s success in the elections.

The PML-N is no different. Ordinarily with 17 members it should have managed to get one senator elected. But a worried Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had to invite his party members from KP for a luncheon-meeting.

Two years after remembering his party members in KP, the gesture by the prime minister to serve them fish tikka, chomps and vegetable soup, came too late in the day. One of its members from Mansehra, Wajihuzzaman, was the first to openly revolt against the party candidate, Gen Salahuddin Tirmizi, and has fielded his own mother.

He is supporting the independent Waqar, hoping that along with getting votes for himself, the Senator from Dera Ismail Khan would get votes for his mother too.

An attempt by the prime minister to shore up support for a constitutional amendment to stop horse-trading was thus doomed from the beginning.

The PPP had made it clear to all and sundry in KP that it would not stand down on its two candidates. The Maulana, it was evident at the Governor’s House huddle, was out to spoil every chance at political consensus.

Clearly, the wily Maulana has his eyes on something beyond the Senate election. A major defection may create all sorts of problems for Tehreek-i-Insaf. Going by rumours and speculations, the sum being spoken about and the alleged involvement of a real estate tycoon – the elephant in the room – the situation appears to be grim.

In the end, the rumours would turn out to be mere rumours and all members would vote according to their conscience and every party would walk away happy, democracy triumphing over deep pockets. But if the worst case scenario turns out to be true, this would not only put a big question mark on the fate of the PTI-led government and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly but also leave a big dent on the credibility of the upper house of parliament and democracy in the country.

Published in Dawn, March 1st, 2015

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