ISLAMABAD: The permutations and possibilities of alliances and arrival of new parties after the elections next month indicate the possibility of the Senate becoming a messier legislature with the key parties almost evenly represented.

Despite winning the largest number of seats due to its majority in the National Assembly as well as the provincial assemblies of Punjab and Balochistan, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is not expected to be in the driving seat at the Senate, which is set to become the main political player over the coming three years.

Know more: Parliament watch: Cleaner Senate elections, same old dirty politics

Despite losing its majority, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) will continue to be the key player in the upper house. The party even still has a chance of retaining the key offices of the Senate chairman and deputy chairman if its leadership plays political cards intelligently.

Senate comprises 104 members — 23 each from the four federating units, eight from Fata and four from Islamabad

The ruling PML-N is expected to make a clean sweep in Punjab by winning all the 11 seats, including the seats reserved for women and technocrats, due to its clear majority in the Punjab Assembly.

Despite giving ‘controversial tickets’ to its candidates belonging to other provinces, the PML-N is also set to win both seats — one general and a woman seat — from Islamabad due to its numerical strength in the national assembly.

Currently, the PML-N has 16 senators and eight of them will retire in March. The party is expected to win 17 seats and its total membership in the upper house can reach 25.

Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) is set to make history by getting representation in the Senate for the first time. However, questions will continue to be raised over the party’s decision to participate in the Senate polls only in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and boycotting in the others.

And in the KP Assembly, too, according to sources, the PTI is busy negotiating with all the parties, including those in the opposition, to come up with consensus candidates — a worthwhile effort in political reconciliation. The PTI will have to sacrifice a seat or two to allow the assembly to present consensus candidates and at the same time masking the rift within it amidst reports of the presence of a forward bloc within the party.

The Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), which had lost representation in the Senate in 2012 due to its decision to boycott the 2008 general elections, is also expected to make a comeback. However, senior JI leader Prof Mohammad Ibrahim told Dawn that the party had agreed on a formula with the PTI under which it would get only one general seat. The JI, he said, would vote for the PTI on the seats reserved for women, technocrats and minorities.

Besides the PTI and the JI, the Qaumi Watan Party (QWP) led by Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao also has a chance of getting representation in the Senate, but it mainly depends upon the ongoing “bargaining” between all the parties in KP.

The PPP, QWP, Awami National Party (ANP), Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) and Awami Jamhoori Ittehad are working on a formula so that each one of them get one seat each from KP, said a senior PPP leader from the province.

He believes that even the PTI would agree on the formula and sacrifice its one or two seats as the leadership would not like to see its intra-party differences exposed through possible defeat of its candidate or candidates.

The PPP leader says that unlike other parties, the PTI is not so clever at the wheeling-dealing required for the senate elections.

A careful calculation on the basis of the party position in all the legislatures and if all members vote strictly for candidates of their parties or government-opposition alliances, the PPP and the PML-N are expected to gain an almost equal representation in the senate and hence attaining the position to equally manipulate the situation by luring the other parties.

Political and parliamentary experts foresee hectic political consultations and manoeuvrings in the senate in future at the time of presentation of any piece of legislation or important resolution.

The PPP and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) are said to have agreed on a formula under which the former will get seven and the latter four seats from the Sindh Assembly. The PPP is ready to sacrifice its one seat to appease the MQM with which the party recently had sour relationship on a number of issues including the ongoing operation against criminals in Karachi and the local government system.

If the formula materialises, the MQM will improve its strength with eight members in the new senate.

The ANP is expected to lose its position in the senate. Currently, it has 12 senators and six of them will be retiring next month. Since the party has only five MPAs in the KP Assembly and one in the Balochistan Assembly, it is not expected to win any seat, unless it manages to strike a big bargaining deal with other parties in KP.

The Maulana Fazlur Rehman-led JUI-F is expected to maintain its position in the upper house. Of its six senators, three are retiring in March and given the party position in the provincial assemblies, it is expected to get three seats. Therefore, the JUI-F strength will remain unchanged.

Besides the PML-N and the MQM, the other parties which are expected to gain strength in the senate are the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) and the National Party (NP).

Since the two nationalist parties are coalition partners with the PML-N in the Balochistan government, both the parties are expected to bag three seats each. After retirement of their only members in the senate next month and with the expected victory of three new candidates, the two parties are set to improve representation in the senate.

However, it is always difficult to predict the outcome of senate elections in Balochistan due to complex and multi-dimensional politics in the province, where even independent candidates always have a chance of winning the elections due to their personal influence or alleged vote-buying practices.

Similarly, the election on the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) seats are always questioned and almost always the nation hears tales about the sale and purchase of votes. Since 12 MNAs from Fata are required to vote for four senators, the situation enables them to strike a deal with the aspiring candidates. The wheeling-dealing on Fata seats continues even during polling time. It is observed that a large number of candidates submit nominations on Fata seats and this time too, there are 43 candidates in the run for four senate seats.

Interestingly, there is only one candidate who has been awarded a PML-N ticket and the remaining are contesting as independent candidates.

The senate comprises 104 members — 23 each from the four federating units, eight from Fata, and four from Islamabad.

The 23 seats allocated to a province comprise 14 general seats, four reserved for women, four for technocrats and one for a minority member.

The term of a senator is six years, but 50 per cent of the total members retire after every three years and elections are held for new senators. Elections to fill the seats allocated to each province are held in accordance with the “system of proportional representation by means of the single transferable vote”.

The Fata senators are elected by the members of the national assembly from the area whereas the four senators on the reserved seats from Islamabad are elected by the members of the national assembly.

Therefore, the senate elections always depend on party positions in the four provincial assemblies and the national assembly.

The new senators will be required to take oath on March 12.

Published in Dawn, February 19th, 2015

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