WITH just over three months to go for the UK general elections due on May 7, the jockeying for position is intensifying. For decades, Britain has been virtually a two-party state with the minor parties a sideshow at best. Now, however, they have made their way to centre stage.

After the hung Parliament and the coalition government that resulted from the 2010 elections, there was a brief period in which mainstream politicians hoped that either Labour or the Conservatives would win an outright majority the next time. That hope has long since faded. Now, the calculus is about how big a share of the electoral pie the smaller parties will grab.

Polling over the last couple of years has shown Labour and the Tories with a combined vote of around 65 per cent, and within a few percentage points of each other. Currently, Labour is neck-and-neck with the Conservatives on around 33pc each. The Liberal Democrats and the Greens are at 7pc each, and UKIP (the UK Independent Party), is at 15pc.

Given these consistent polling numbers, it is clear that Britain is heading for another hung Parliament. The question now being asked with increasing urgency is: who will get into bed with whom? Thus far, Plaid Cymru, the Welsh party, the Scottish National Party and the Greens have all announced that they will not join a Conservative-led coalition. For their part, the Conservatives have declared that they will never consider a partnership with UKIP.

But never doesn’t mean never in politics. The temptation of power is like the smell of blood to a carnivore: irresistible. Look at what it did to Nick Clegg and his Liberal Democrats. After a stint in office as junior partners, they are now toxic, and would be lucky to win even ten seats.

The very fact that the Conservatives are holding their own shines a spotlight on Labour’s failure to capitalise on five years of Tory-inflicted economic pain with harsh austerity policies that have left deep scars on vast swathes of the electorate. Ed Milliband, the Labour leader, has been unable to shake off his nerdish image, and clarify what his party actually stands for. Under normal circumstances, Labour ought to be well ahead of the Conservatives, but the party continues to struggle to win back its core support.

One reason for its dismal showing thus far lies in the Conservative success in shaping a narrative that makes Labour under Tony Blair and then Gordon Brown entirely responsible for Britain’s economic woes. And then, of course, there is the shadow of Iraq still hanging over Labour.

While UKIP has done well out of the growing disenchantment with the European Union and the unfettered migration from member states it allows, it continues to hover between 15pc and 20pc in national polls. But much of its support comes from Conservative voters, and the new party could cost David Cameron heavily by siphoning off votes in closely contested constituencies, allowing Labour candidates to win.

However, Labour faces a huge challenge in Scotland where support for the SNP has surged following last year’s lost referendum. There, Labour currently holds around 40 seats, and could easily lose half. This by itself could prevent Labour from emerging as the single biggest party in the next parliament.

But this is not Labour’s only problem. Unexpectedly, the Greens, once considered a marginal party, have begun doing well in the opinion polls, with 7pc announcing their intentions to vote for them. While this might translate into two or three seats (they presently have only one), they might well deprive Labour of more by appealing to its left-wing supporters, and allowing the Conservatives to win in tight races.

Although Ed Milliband has been dubbed ‘Red Ed’ by his critics, the fact is that by seeking to appeal to the middle as well as to the left, he has put both off. To middle-class professionals, he comes across as a socialist, while to the left he appears to be appeasing bankers and global corporations.

Although Tony Blair is now much reviled in Britain, he was nevertheless a remarkably successful politician, winning three elections. In a recent interview with the Economist, he made the observation that Labour could never win by abandoning the centre ground and moving to the left. He went on to say that the Conservatives had shifted to the right to fight off the threat posed by UKIP, thus leaving the centre ground up for grabs.

Another factor all politicians have to consider is that young voters, in particular, are feeling squeezed by five years of harsh austerity. Jobs have been hard to get, and salaries have fallen in real terms. And while they more or less expected this under the Conservatives, they find it hard to accept that Labour is committed to continue with cuts in social benefits. This is one reason the Greens are enjoying a surge with their promise to reverse Conservative policies.

Britain’s place in the EU is another major factor in the electoral mix. Cameron is committed to a referendum on continuing the country’s membership in 2017, but Labour is unlikely to undertake such a vote should it win. This pro-Europe stance is costing Labour its support from working class Britons who see their jobs threatened by East European immigrants. This inflow has also helped depress wages.

All these possible permutations and combinations make the coming elections very hard to read. While the broad contours of the outcome are fairly clear, the frontrunner is still difficult to spot, as is the shape of the coalition that will emerge. But what is clear is that the result will shape Britain’s place in Europe, and perhaps the world.

Published in Dawn, February 2nd, 2015

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