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MILITARY coups in Pakistan have had a certain element of predictability and imminence about them. One could see them unfolding. There was nothing subtle about them — always a swift and hard power play. This time perhaps, there is a different phenomenon at play: an incremental shifting of power without tanks rolling on the streets. Even the term ‘soft coup’ may not be an appropriate one. It is more of an assertion of power. Yet, it may culminate into a complete takeover.
It is, indeed, a dramatic turnaround from a year and half ago when Pakistanis celebrated the first-ever transfer of power from one democratically elected government to the next. Many considered military rule as a relic of the past. So, how did this turnaround occur? The military was never completely out of the power equation anyway, some would argue. True. But the major question is: how did this shift in balance take place within such a short period of time?
It is not just about the 21st Amendment or the establishment of military courts. It is about the acceptability of the return of the military as an arbiter of power by the political leaders and the public in general. The generals sitting among the civilian leaders virtually dictating a national counterterrorism action plan is only one of the manifestations of this new reality.
The military is asserting itself while the government seems to have abdicated responsibility.
It is not surrender as is being described by some analysts, but more of an abdication of responsibility by a failed civilian leadership. It is obvious that the prime minister was neither willing nor had the capacity to lead the nation in this critical war. Shy of even coming on TV when the entire nation sunk into a state of shock after the carnage of schoolchildren in Peshawar, he has let the generals take charge.
He did not even bother to visit the Army Public School when the pupils returned to their classes, haunted by the memory of the massacre of their schoolmates. It was the other Sharif, the general, who was there to greet the returning children. Symbolism does matter, particularly, at a time when a national tragedy has occurred.
But it goes beyond symbolism. The military commanders are now presiding over the provincial action committees set up to implement the national action plan too. It is a further reflection of the civilian administration conceding more and more ground to the military on internal security matters.
Of course, the role of the military does become much more important in internal security when the country is confronted with an insurgency situation and a terrorist threat. But it is primarily the responsibility of the civilian administration to lead. This is not the case today. The contrast is more glaring when it comes to the government’s lacklustre attitude and the much stronger and definitive stance of the military leadership against violent extremism and militancy.
The impression of the civilians and military being on the same page in fighting terrorism is deceptive. The gap between them on the counterterrorism policy and other issues is as wide as ever. The conflict is likely to intensify on how serious the prime minister and his administration are on the implementation of the action plan. The government already seems to be backtracking on action against radical seminaries and banned sectarian outfits operating under new banners. The distrust of each other remains high despite the government having taken a step back on many contentious issues.
The recent high-profile visit of Gen Raheel Sharif to Washington and London seem to have further reinforced the perception that it not the prime minister but the army chief who is in charge. It is not the first time a Pakistani army chief has visited those Western capitals, but the kind of interest Gen Raheel Sharif attracted during the trips has been rare, if not unprecedented.
There is a noticeable public perception that the Western allies now consider the Pakistani military as the main decision-maker and are, therefore, seeking its cooperation in the quest for regional security. Though the military has always had a strong say on key aspects of foreign policy, it now seems to be much more overtly defining overall policy direction. With no full-time foreign minister and the Foreign Office being rendered ineffective, the initiative now seems to have completely swung towards GHQ.
Time and again an event occurs that serves as a fable for where our politics and politicians have gone wrong, raising the military’s profile each time. The legitimacy of the government is still being challenged as it is alleged that the last elections were manipulated. Though Imran Khan has finally called off the dharna, the demand for setting up a judicial commission to investigate the allegations of electoral fraud remains contentious. Unresolved, the issue is hanging like the sword of Damocles over the entire system.
Living from crisis to crisis and Nawaz Sharif’s style of governance have further eroded the government’s political credibility. The most recent example is the acute shortage of petroleum aggravating the chronic energy crisis in the country. The latest crisis, that has hit Punjab the most, underscores the growing ineptitude of the government in dealing with critical issues. The long promised reforms have failed to materialise.
The failure to deliver is the biggest undoing of the Sharif government. The government had come under some pressure during the PTI agitation to bring about much-needed changes in the cabinet. But that too seems to have been put in cold storage, at least for now.
All is certainly not well with the shadow of the military lurking once again on the country’s political horizon. The civilian political leadership’s fast losing control and the erosion of its credibility is an ideal situation for the military leadership to assert itself further. There has already been a creeping expansion of military authority. It appears like the writing on the wall — only if the political leadership could read it. The months ahead paint a slippery slope for the civilian administration.
The writer is an author and journalist.
Twitter: @hidhussain
Published in Dawn, January 21st, 2015
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