IN a small, secluded house up in Sri Lanka’s Knuckles mountain range, I was woken by the sound of firecrackers early last Friday morning, announcing the defeat of Mahinda Rajapakse in the presidential election.

Most foreign and local pundits had predicted a violent election, given how close it was, and how much was at stake for the incumbent and his family. I had even written about the strong possibility of violence in the north and north-east provinces aimed at suppressing the Tamil and Muslim vote.

In the event, all these gloomy predictions were proved wrong as Sri Lanka’s election commission oversaw a peaceful, transparent poll with a record turnout. Rajapakse even lost the postal ballot by a slight margin. This exercise had been deemed the most susceptible to manipulation, but in the event, there were no reports of any rigging.

In fact, there were no complaints from across the island in an election won by Maithripala Sirisena (popularly known as ‘Maithiri’) by around half a million votes out of nearly 12 million. This was out of 15 million registered voters, so the turnout was very high. Interestingly, Rajapakse seems to have retained his core support in the majority Buddhist districts in the central region as well as in the south. This may well provide him with a platform for a comeback in the future, specially if Sirisena’s winning coalition fails to keep its promise of good governance.

After a decade in power, Rajapakse had acquired an unenviable reputation for corruption and nepotism. Three of his brothers were in the government, with Gotabaya a sinister presence in the defence ministry from where he also controlled the lucrative portfolio of urban development. Namal, the president’s son, was a member of parliament, and according to rumours, was being groomed to succeed his father after his six-year term, had he won. And in the south, where we have our beach house, tuk-tuk drivers and hotel managers talked softly about properties being acquired by the first family through arm twisting.

In Colombo, there was talk about the huge commercial projects approved by the government, and the kickbacks that had been paid. One of them was the $400 million casino proposed by the Australian billionaire, James Packer. Apparently, the new government has vowed to kill the project. Other casinos in the approval stages, deeply resented by conservative Buddhists, are also likely to be cancelled.

Some infrastructure projects are also likely to be reviewed. Already, the country is burdened by huge debts, mostly from China, for building a number of mega-projects that Rajapakse had touted as a major achievement. However, many made no economic sense at all. For instance, Hambantota, a district capital 40 kilometres from us, is home to an international airport, a huge conference centre, a cricket stadium built to international standards, a modern port and a network of flyovers. Several factories are also coming up in a new industrial zone.

The problem is that there are very few people in the area. Thus, there is virtually no cricket played in the stadium, few flights operate from the new airport, and the port is only used by ships carrying cars at the direction of the government. Nevertheless, the projects have been located there as this is Rajapakse’s home base. But to his credit, he has also pushed through a network of good roads across the island, including a number of excellent motorways. It used to take nearly seven hours to reach our house from the airport 10 years ago; now it takes just three.

However, the award of contracts for these projects has given rise to huge controversy and many accusations of corruption. One academic has calculated that Sri Lanka’s new motorways are the most expensive in the world. Most contracts were awarded to Chinese firms without open tenders.

In a bid to discredit his opponent, Rajapakse charged him with colluding with the West to drag Sri Lanka’s armed forces before an international enquiry into the killing of thousands of Tamil civilians near the end of the civil war in 2009. Sirisena was also accused of wanting to end Sri Lanka’s close relationship with China at Washington’s behest. Indeed, over the years, the government has spun a number of conspiracy theories about how the West has supported Tamil separatism.

But apart from holding the election two years earlier than required, Rajapakse’s biggest mistake was to alienate the country’s two biggest minorities, the Tamils and the Muslims. The latter had been subjected to several murderous attacks by a group of rabid Buddhist thugs operating under the banner of Buddhist Power Force, or BBS, its Sinhalese name. The Tamils continued to be marginalised despite the end of the bloody civil war nearly five years ago.

Among Sirisena’s major promises is the pledge to end the controversial executive presidency that gives enormous powers to the president. He says he will do this in a hundred days. Ranil Wickramesinghe, the veteran leader of the opposition, has taken over as prime minister.

The coalition includes Muslim and Tamil parties, JVP, a left-wing nationalist party, as well as the JHU, the party representing Buddhist monks. The president and prime minister will be tested early in their tenure by assembling a cabinet that can work together. The second challenge will be to call early parliamentary elections so they can use their momentum to elect their own majority.

Rajapakse’s defeat has halted Sri Lanka’s steady slide towards a one-family dictatorship. Over the last decade, I have seen democratic institutions being destroyed as journalists have been bullied, beaten and even murdered without the assailants ever being caught. Opposition politicians have been bribed to cross over. A chief justice has been thrown out. Fear stalked the island, so there is much to celebrate after a famous victory for the opposition. But above all, this is a victory for democracy.

Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2015

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