LONDON: The calculators will be out in force as AS Roma and Manchester City clash for a place in the last 16 of the Champions League on Wednesday with outsiders CSKA Moscow lurking in the background.

The head-to-head rule which UEFA use to separate teams who are level on points means that all sorts of complex connotations are possible as the three sides bid to follow runaway Group ‘E’ leaders Bayern Munich into the next round.

Manchester City have never won a competitive match in Italy in four previous attempts and, even if they break that taboo, could still suffer another premature group stage exit.

Roma’s fate is in their own hands as a win will be enough for them while a draw, paradoxically, could send either themselves or City through, depending on CSKA’s performance in Munich.

Should CSKA lose then a no-score draw would see Roma progressing while a score draw would be enough for City to reach the second round.

However, should CSKA also draw, then Roma would go through with all three sides tied on the same number of points. If City win then they must hope CSKA do not.

It’s one for the mathematicians, perhaps, but essentially the crux is, they must both go for victory.

“Our destiny is in our hands, and we have to make the most of this great occasion,” said Roma coach Rudi Garcia. “We’re not making calculations, all we’re focused on is beating City.”

City manager Manuel Pellegrini’s squad could be without arguably their best four players.

Star midfielder Yaya Toure is suspended, top scorer Sergio Aguero is out with a serious knee injury, sustained on Saturday, and playmaker David Silva and captain Vincent Kompany are major injury doubts.

But midfielder James Milner believes City have enough firepower to cause Roma problems, and enough experience throughout the squad to deal with a potentially hostile atmosphere at the Stadio Olimpico.

“Sergio is a world class player, and has been outstanding all season so the injury has come at a bad time,” Milner said on Monday.

“He is going to be very difficult to replace and even without him and Yaya (Toure) we have a fantastic squad of players and, with the players, we have I am not too worried. We’ve had to win our last two games to qualify and I believe we can win in Rome”

In Group ‘G’, Schalke 04 and Sporting Lisbon are battling to finish second behind Chelsea and secure a place in the knockout stages of the competition.

For third-placed Schalke to progress, they must end Maribor’s run of seven unbeaten European home games and hope Chelsea beat Sporting at Stamford Bridge.

Sporting, second on seven points, head to London with a doubt about the fitness of attacking midfielder Nani, who was substituted in the first half of their 3-1 win against Boavista at the weekend.

A draw should be enough for the Portuguese side to advance due to their superior goal difference over Schalke.

Elsewhere on Wednesday, top spot in Group ‘F’ will be the main talking point as Paris St Germain travel to the Camp Nou looking to avoid defeat and keep their noses in front of Barcelona.

With Group ‘H’ already decided — with FC Porto winning the section ahead of Shakhtar Donestsk, a place in the Europa League is on offer to the winners of the game between Athletic Bilbao and BATE Borisov.

Published in Dawn December 10th , 2014