ONE more time in the span of three and half months bets are being taken on how Pakistan will look post-Nov 30 — the appointed day for a rally in Islamabad by the PTI. It’s being billed as a make-or-break event for Imran Khan and once again he is being warned about the dire consequences he may be faced with should his rally fail to gather the numbers that he himself and those around him and in opposition to him are placing so much emphasis on.

The analysis, the warnings, the advice that have come the PTI leader’s way indicate, as if, like the march in August, this rally in Islamabad is being viewed as a single inevitable occurrence and as though all would be hunky-dory once the country manages to pass through this hurdle. Imran’s own journey since he took off from Lahore at the head of a march and dharna proves that these conventional theories may be dated and thus cannot be applied to understand and see off the challenge that he has mounted.

The PTI was expected to dissipate after the lunge towards the power base in mid-August. As the ‘pro-democratic’ (more pro-the current parliament) forces closed ranks, in theory he had been isolated in mainstream politics. This isolation was thought to be complete when everyone realised that the famed invisible backers who were supposed to have propped up Imran Khan to act as a direct threat to the system (more specifically to the government) did not desire him to enact a dismantling job, not for now at least.

With this neat defence in place, Imran was to be dismissed as an arrogant child of the circumstances who, the enlarged and energised pro-government camp believed, would be forced to call off his campaign. That did not happen and it is a surprise that the same old formulas of frustrating a so-called unreasonable opposition politician — practically the only one in the field now — continue to be applied to this latest show by the PTI scheduled for Nov 30.

Imran-bashing is a game that has drawn more and more prominent players with the passage of time.

The new lessons during the last 100 days or so suggest otherwise. The government, with all these resources and allies at its disposal and chiefly with this assurance of non-intervention from the military, has reason to feel safe. However, the PTI will also most likely survive any lack of sufficient numbers at the coming rally. The stand-off will continue, as if it is something that has to be lived in the pursuance of the cherished dream about establishing democracy on a sound footing in the country.

It is a lie. It is a blatant lie that Imran Khan, who has demonstrated widespread support in various parts of the country, has had no effect on Pakistani life. He has made an impact beyond the shocks to the economy he is routinely blamed for by those in government, right up to the chief minister of Punjab and the prime minister of Pakistan. One of the biggest casualties of his perseverance has been reason.

It makes not a pretty sight when people who are known for acting on the side of logic and fair play are today found to be booing the PTI chief, and, by this very act helping him expand the constituency they want to deny him.

They are not guiding or plainly telling Imran to take the legal course; they appear to be shooing him away in anger. They are working by some strange logic when counter-arguing: What if the 2013 polls were not ideal? All elections are rigged to some extent. Let’s concede there was rigging and a few seats were snatched from the PTI. Suppose the PTI was awarded these seats, would that impact the overall result in a big way?

From an opposition point of view those who make these statements concede more than they save or consolidate. They might have been better advised to play the bridge between the parties to the dispute rather than be entertaining themselves by stoking the fires by the government’s side.

Imran-bashing, calling him names is a game that has drawn more and more prominent players with the passage of time. They are more inclined to still count the numbers at his rallies, one city to another, Punjab to Sindh, counting men and women, separating the old from the young. They disregard a basic fact: that the PTI chief has the support of a large number of Pakistanis was established a few months ago. Once this was done, what was needed next was some emergency action to contain him, which could have been best achieved by engaging him reasonably, and not by shouting him down.

A political challenger leading a charge for power would be prone to histrionics and it is always the responsibility of those on the side of the government to find ways of engaging him. What the PML-N and its allies did in this case was that in their weak — or less reassuring — moments they did appear to be more receptive to Imran Khan’s demands, before they veered off into territory governed by illogic.

For instance, during the initial days of the dharna when everyone was so sure that the military was all set to use the PTI and PAT gathering led by Tahirul Qadri as pawns in a new coup, a teary-eyed minister stood in front of the cameras to solicit restraint and talks with ‘big brother’ Imran Khan.

Whereas the tears and the accompanying drama was a bit too much then and can best be avoided now, the three and a half months spent in the effort to contain Imran by force of words and by the power of administration is the precious time lost in taking democracy forward — to a stage where it can facilitate negotiations between politicians without the need or fear of outside intervention.

The writer is Dawn’s resident in Lahore.

Published in Dawn, November 28th, 2014