Dar promises steady GDP growth

Published October 11, 2014
Pakistani Finance Minister, Ishaq Dar.— AFP file photo
Pakistani Finance Minister, Ishaq Dar.— AFP file photo

WASHINGTON: Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has assured the international community that Pakistan will maintain a steady GDP growth rate despite the adverse affects of this year’s floods and the politics of sit-ins.

In his address to South Asian experts and students at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, the minister said that recent reforms had already led to “a remarkable turnaround” in almost all macro-economic indicators.

The economy was growing at a rate of 4 per cent plus, while the government was targeting a 5pc by the end of this year, taking it to 7pc in a few years, he said.

The minister also highlighted the boost in per capita income, rise in industrial sector growth to over 5pc, 6.8pc reduction in core inflation and 16.4pc expansion in revenue generation.

Mr Dar said the government had kept fiscal deficit to an acceptable 8.2pc while making an enhanced allocation of Rs 451 billion to the development budget.

He also pointed out reduction in government borrowing, a healthy increase in exports and an unprecedented success of Pakistani bonds in the international market.

The finance minister thanked Pakistani expatriates for their positive contributions through remittances, which registered a growth of 13.7pc this year, and brought $15.8 billion to the country.

The finance minister also referred to successful auction of 4G licence, which is expected to create 900,000 jobs.

In a recent statement, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), however, warned that macroeconomic imbalances and longstanding structural impediments to growth had prevented full realisation of Pakistan’s potential.

The fund which last year provided a $6.86 billion, 36-month extended loan facility to Pakistan, also noted that problems in the energy sector, security concerns, and a difficult investment climate had “combined with adverse shocks to undermine economic performance in the past decade”.

“As a result, GDP growth has only averaged 3pc over the past few years, well below what is needed to provide jobs for the rising labour force and to reduce poverty,” the IMF warned.

The report noted that with the population still increasing rapidly, Pakistan’s per capita income growth had lagged behind many emerging economies.

The IMF also noted that Pakistan’s “fiscal deficit has widened, driven by weak tax collections, energy sector subsidies, and increased provincial government spending”.

It noted out that domestic deficit financing had crowded out private sector borrowing and had contributed to inflation.

“Private sector credit has become negative in real terms, while monetary aggregates continue to be driven mainly by the government’s financing needs,” the note said.

According to the IMF, Pakistan’s external position had “weakened significantly, and central bank reserves have declined to critical levels”.

The finance minister, however, depicted a rosier picture of the economy but acknowledged that the sit-ins led by PTI and PAT had hampered the government’s efforts to accelerate economic revival.

He noted that delayed inflows of around $ 2.6 billion, including $550 million from the IMF, which would have been released upon completion of the review several weeks ago, had also hurt the economy.

“The sit-ins caused 4pc depreciation in the value of rupee, which will cost around Rs250 billion to the country,” he said.

The minister pointed out that the protests had also affected the stock exchange trading and FDI inflows.

Published in Dawn, October 11th , 2014

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