Since the floods began in Pakistan earlier this month, there have been reports circulating in the local media about “water terrorism” where India is accused of deliberately releasing large volumes of water into the rivers which then pass into Pakistan.

The reports conveniently ignore the fact that most of Srinagar is submerged due to the torrential rainfall that fell in this region in the first week of September and that the swollen River Jhelum has not spared anyone in its path. The floods that have hit India and Pakistan in this late monsoon season are the consequence of climate change and certainly not of any deliberate “water aggression”.

According to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) latest scientific report (AR5), floods and droughts are likely to increase in this region. Experts in India like Sunita Narain of the Centre for Science and Environment (based in New Delhi) are exhorting their government “to come out of its denial mode that climate change is not affecting us”. Sunita recently told the Indian government “to discard its ostrich-like policy”. In her view, “We will have to see the linkages between climate change and the events such as those unfolding in Jammu and Kashmir. We will have to accept that climate change is going to affect us more and more in the future. We will have to start preparing to adapt to climate change.”

Floods are due to climate change, not ‘water terrorism’

The same words hold true for us in Pakistan where instead of blaming India for the floods we should be looking ahead towards cooperation. Rajendra Pachauri, the Chairperson of the IPCC who happens to be an Indian, has, for some years now been calling for greater cooperation between Pakistan and India, when it comes to managing our joint water resources (the Indus River System). He has pointed out that our “culture and history has shown us that we can harmonise our actions in consonance with nature”. Climate change knows no geographical boundaries and it is impacting the whole region — instead of pointing fingers we need to come together to tackle this immense challenge.

Dr Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry, the lead author of Pakistan’s first ever National Climate Change Policy has recently submitted a proposal to the Government of Pakistan for the establishment of a real time hydrological monitoring system between India and Pakistan given that he has recently been appointed a Special Envoy for the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation for Disaster Risk Reduction/Climate Services for Asia. “Basically, by using river gauges and dam gauges; if we know the river flows and dam levels and how much rain is expected we can interpret the data ourselves instead of waiting for the Indian government to give us information. When there is heavy rainfall, India has no choice but to release water into the rivers; sometimes the delayed release of water creates a bigger problem. We also do it on our side when there is heavy rainfall,” he explains.

Given the Indian government’s current offer of help in flood relief efforts in the Punjab, Dr Chaudhry says that what is really needed is long-term cooperation in flood warning between the two countries. “The availability of such information on real time basis can significantly enhance Pakistan’s flood forecasting and warning capabilities.

Pakistani experts, instead of waiting for delayed information through Indus Water Commissioners of India and Pakistan, can easily interpret the imminent release of water from Indian dams and rivers with enhanced precision along with a relatively larger reaction time. This will result in greater ability to save human life and property of people in the region, particularly on the Pakistani side — it being a lower riparian.”

Presently the two countries’ data exchange system in based on a 20th century fax-based communication system. The Indian flood authorities give the rivers’ flow data to the Indian Water Commission, who then fax it to the Pakistan Indus Commission, who then fax it to the Pakistani flood authorities if the fax is readable.

While Dr Chaudhry awaits a favourable response from the government, it is important to point out that scientists all over the world are saying that climate change impacts are going to get a lot worse in the near future. As the planet continues to warm, extreme weather events are on the rise and their intensity is also increasing.

According to the Secretary General of the UN, Ban Ki Moon, “Climate change is affecting the weather everywhere. It makes it more extreme and disturbs established patterns. That means more disasters; more uncertainty”. He has invited world leaders, from government, finance, business, and civil society to the “Climate Summit 2014” this month to galvanise climate action. He would like to see world leaders make “bold pledges” to fight climate change at the meeting in New York. The summit is seen as a step towards a global deal to slow global warming, which is due by the end of 2015 at the UN Climate Change Conference to be held in Paris.

Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, September 21st, 2014