On August 22, water level in the country’s four rivers dropped to the lowest ever in the past 10 years, threatening the standing kharif crops that were half-way to their full maturity, and the sowing of rabi crops.

The critical situation emerged owing to the less than 40pc of the normal monsoon rainfall in the current season. As things stand today, only a good spell of rains in September can come to the rescue of the endangered crops and provide food security to the people.

The water level in the Indus river dropped from 2,18,600 cusecs to 1,45,000 cusecs at Tarbela dam, in Kabul river from 51,200 cusecs to 30,700 cusecs at Nowshera, in river Chenab from 58,200 cusecs to 46,000 cusecs and in river Jhelum from 33,500 cusecs to 23,000 cusecs in just few days in the third week of August. This has left the country’s economy at the mercy of the weather which, in turn, is largely influenced by the climate change. The water inflow into rivers from the original source is already in decline because of controversial Indian dams.

The sudden drop of 1,15,000 cusecs water in a couple of days was a major blow to the country’s agrarian economy at a time when abundant irrigation water was needed for water intensive crops like rice, cotton, cane, vegetables and fruit orchards till their maturity and harvesting during the next two months.

Availability of irrigation water, when it is badly needed, remains unpredictable

Availability of irrigation water, when it is badly needed, remains unpredictable. Exactly a year ago, the situation was opposite to what it is today and conditions were much better as there was abundant supply of water. In recent years, the shortage of water had sometimes been so acute that it not only affected the standing crops, but also led to grave differences among the provinces over the water share.

If there is a good rainfall and no shortage of water in a particular season, it should not raise hopes for better days ahead because it is just a passing event. For instance, during the monsoon season of July-September, 2013, the rainfall received was 151.4mm against the normal average rainfall of 140.8mm, showing an increase of 7.5pc. Pakistan has a good irrigation canal network but temperatures and rainfalls play an important role during the sowing and harvesting season.

Meanwhile, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has, in a timely move released 30,000 cusecs extra water from the Tarbela dam to enable the provinces to meet their minimum needs of providing water to the strategic cash crops. However, Punjab and Sindh had already reduced their water indent by 20,000 cusecs to meet the minimum needs of the kharif crops and conserve maximum water for sowing of the rabi crops of wheat, gram, oil seeds, vegetables, fruit orchards.

Water managers in Punjab have done a good job of filling the Tarbela Dam to its highest level of 1550 feet, thus attaining its maximum storage capacity of 6.45MAF. Filling of Mangla dam has not been possible as yet and it remains nine feet below its maximum level of 1242 feet. However, 6.70MAF water has been stored in the Mangla dam so far. Thanks to the completion of the Raising Project, Mangla Dam has become the country’s biggest reservoir surpassing Tarbela dam’s storage capacity of 6.2MAF.

The only solution to the prevailing predicament lies in building large water storages. One may note that 11 such projects were undertaken in recent years and most of them are now nearing completion. During 2013-14 more than Rs31bn out of total budget of Rs57.8bn for water sector was released and utilised in the 10 months of the fiscal year. These projects include Gomal Zam dam (substantially complete), Rainee canal, Sindh (98pc complete), Kachchi canal, Balochistan (78pc complete), Satpara dam, Skardu, (physically complete) and Darwat dam, Sindh, (92pc complete).

The Tarbela Lake had the water storage capacity of 9MAF in mid-1970s which, over the years, reduced to 6.581MAF due to silting in the reservoir. Similarly, Mangla Dam had 5MAF storage capacity in that period which gradually came down to 4.5MAF owing to sedimentation. Now it can store as much as 7.2MAF water.

Irsa has also changed the water distribution mechanism in the wake of upgradation of Mangla dam. Under this arrangement, Punjab’s maximum requirement will be met by Mangla Dam and that of the other three provinces by Tarbela. Under the previous arrangement, the provinces had fixed water shares as provided under the 1991 accord. Under the accord, a combined storage pool and link canals, like Chashma-Jhelum and Taunsa-Punjnad, were utilised for diverting water from the Indus zone to the Jhelum zone.

But the technical committee of Irsa later proposed that in view of increased water storage at the Mangla Dam, Punjab would not be provided water for Chashma-Jhelum Link Canal from Indus Zone during the rabi season.

Punjab accepted the proposal saying as long as its irrigation share was fully met it would not matter whichever source the water came from.

Published in Dawn, Economic & Business, September 1st, 2014