Counting on the domino effect?

Published August 24, 2014
In other words, government officials feel that once Khan calls off his march, the cleric-turned-politician may have less room to manoeuvre and will be compelled to follow suit. — File photo
In other words, government officials feel that once Khan calls off his march, the cleric-turned-politician may have less room to manoeuvre and will be compelled to follow suit. — File photo

ISLAMABAD: By Saturday night, the dual dialogue seemed to have landed in a dead end but while there was little news from the government on what it was thinking about the deadlock with Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT), they did not seem willing to lose hope where the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) was concerned.

At the end of the talks on Saturday, a government representative told the media that “talks never ended” and the government would continue to maintain contacts.

This simple sentence lends credence to what the PML-N members concede in background conversations – that the party’s strategy is to focus its efforts on resolving matters with PTI first.

This partiality – if it can be called that – is due to a number of reasons. Partially, the greater focus on PTI is because it is viewed as a democratic stakeholder, due to its presence in the parliament as well as its government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

This is also the reason major political parties have offered and are trying to mediate between the government and the PTI.

However it appears the government will continue to work harder on breaking the deadlock with the PTI because it feels that an agreement with the party will take the steam out of Dr Tahirul Qadri’s Inqilaab.

In other words, government officials feel that once Khan calls off his march, the cleric-turned-politician may have less room to manoeuvre and will be compelled to follow suit.

“The government is focused on a possible pact with PTI,” a senior government official involved in the talks told Dawn.

To drive his point home, the official said that observers simply needed to compare the two committees formed.

The one formed to talk to PAT consists of federal ministers Ahsan Iqbal and Lt Gen (retired) Abdul Qadir Baloch, along with MQM’s Haider Abbas Rizvi and Ijazul Haq (who heads his own Muslim League faction, the PML-Z).

In comparison, the committee formed for PTI includes four federal ministers and Punjab Governor Chaudhry Mohammad Sarwar.

Besides, Mr Ahsan and General Baloch, Information Minister Pervaiz Rashid and IT Minister Zahid Hamid are also on the committee. Not only are Mr Ahsan and General Baloch seen as the more conciliatory face of the ruling party, the presence of Mr Hamid hints that this committee may also need legal and constitutional information while carrying out the talks.

Similarly, Governor Sarwar is also seen as a conciliatory figure, who can reach across the political spectrum, something that doesn’t come easily to most PML-N figures.

“The PTI is a major political stakeholder of the current democratic system. Once the government and the PTI find some common ground, we believe Dr Qadri will be left with no option but to fall in line”

The official agrees that Dr Qadri will also have to be offered some concessions. However, he explains that the compromise with PAT will be easier to achieve once the stand off with the PTI has been addressed.

According to the government official, the PML-N takes strength from the fact that despite the obvious coordination between the two protesting parties, they have still maintained a distance.

“The twin marches had been moving side by side since August 14 when they left Lahore, but they have not officially joined hands despite the best efforts of the Chaudhries and Sheikh Rashid.”

The official is right – not for a single moment have the two leaders stood together on one stage or made any effort to suggest that their demands were identical.

“Even their second tier leaders have not met each other publicly,” he added.

This is because the internal PTI consensus is that sharing a stage with Dr Qadri would damage their political capital.

No wonder then that Sheikh Rashid, who before the two rallies had left Lahore, had been visiting Dr Qadri, had stayed away from the PAT rally in Islamabad; he has stuck to Imran Khan’s side.

When asked, a PML-N office bearer, who is close to the PML-N leadership, said that for all practical purposes the PTI deserved more attention, as it was the second largest political party in terms of polled votes in the last general elections.

He added that apart from the demand for the prime minister’s resignation and dissolution of the National Assemblies, the PTI demands were reasonable.

“However, Dr Qadri wants the entire system to be wrapped up, which is unacceptable to anyone.”

However, this does not detract from the fact that so far, the PML-N has not been willing to concede any ground on the resignation of the prime minister. And as Saturday’s talks showed, this will be a problem.

According to the PML-N office bearer, the majority in the party believed that the resignation of either of the two Sharifs would have devastating consequences.

It now remains to be seen if the deadlock on Saturday night will force a change in the PML-N strategy.

Published in Dawn, August 24th, 2014

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