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The excitement created by 24/7 TV coverage of the two protests currently under way provides no hint to the unfolding scenario. One is unable to read the situation because while there may be two major marches, the agendas at work are many, including undeclared ones. Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf leader Imran Khan started by saying he wanted a transparent investigation into charges of electoral fraud, punishment for those found involved and ironclad electoral reform.
Frankly, no right-minded person would find fault with those demands. Although all democratic parties should have endorsed this and moved apace towards reform so that the next electoral exercise could be as above board as that perhaps next door in India, it did not happen.
The governing PML-N failed to see this as a political issue and tried to deal with it as something best left to the courts, which was more or less the equivalent to wishing it away. Call it his grit, ego or stubbornness, but Imran Khan was having none of that.
Who else would be more at ease with seeing the ‘third force’ coming to their rescue than the Chaudhrys from Gujrat?
The more time passed and the angrier Khan got, more unreasonable demands got added on to his initial wish list. Now he wants the prime minister to resign, the assemblies to be dissolved, electoral reform and then fresh elections.
Given that a large number of people protesting with him endorse his view, it is incumbent on the former cricket captain to be categorical on how he proposes to achieve his goals as the Constitution does not seem to provide a mechanism for what he is proposing, unless Nawaz Sharif and those with governments in Sindh and Balochistan agree with him and sign off on their own extinction orders.
All parties are avowedly opposed to extra-constitutional measures (read military intervention) to resolve the current differences. Even Dr Qadri, despite calling for the whole system to be scrapped, keeps referring to the constitutional provisions on who qualifies to be a member of parliament and says there is no fear of a military intervention.
Of course the military itself has given no indication it wishes to step into this messy situation. Unhappy the khaki leadership may be with certain government decisions but the optics of recent days (some ISPR-controlled) show civil-military harmony at play.
So, can you blame a mere mortal of an analyst for struggling to make sense of the situation? Well, let’s play for more of your sympathy. The conflicting and confusing positions of the two main leaders aside there are many other political pygmies trying to piggyback their way to renewed stardom.
The foremost among them is Sheikh Rashid, the TV talk show hosts’ favourite ratings puller. All through the last government’s tenure he chided the army for not stepping in. Now he doesn’t wish to restrict himself to TV demands.
What he lacks himself in mass support outside his Rawalpindi constituency, he seems to have found in Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri. If the two marches are separated by a few miles since their Thursday launch, rest assured it isn’t because the Lal Haveli celebrity hasn’t tried.
And if somehow the clashes between charged political supporters (no matter how mindless and condemnable it was for the PML-N workers to start this violence) haven’t escalated into government-destabilising, hand-to-hand street battles across Punjab, I’ll bet the Sheikh will only be disappointed.
Now who else would be more at ease with seeing the ‘third force’ coming to their rescue than the Chaudhrys from Gujrat? They thrived under Gen Musharraf just as they and their former Punjab Muslim League former friends the Sharifs did under Gen Zia.
The 1999 coup, the hardship (if you can call it that) of exile and the influence of Benazir Bhutto, with whom they concluded the Charter of Democracy, seemingly transformed the Sharifs into their own version of democrats opposed to the military meddling in politics. (But their idea of civil supremacy without accountability isn’t really viable in this day and age.)
However, the Chaudhrys haven’t even allowed themselves the luxury of being openly opposed to military rule/intervention. They know well Sharif’s gains equal their loss, even political annihilation. And these are some of the major characters trying to guide the protest leaders’ hands.
After having tried to contain the marches via earth-filled and weighted containers, when the government decided to remove all obstacles and allow the marches free passage, optimism was generated that somehow this was the result of a deal between the two sides. Optimism because any such deal would have to include electoral reform on which a recent opinion poll demonstrated there is a very broad-based consensus in the country as over 80pc respondents supported this.
One was hoping that the protesters would gather, a dialogue would ensue and once the road map for reforms was agreed upon and announced, they’d disperse victorious, having used their peaceful protest as a catalyst to ensure the process was accelerated.
In fact, this demand may not have received much attention but sources close to Tahirul Qadri say he may be open to reason if he is reassured that the government may rethink its alleged tilt towards one Muslim school of thought.
All this is speculation. The situation over the next few days may be volatile and uncertain but if the protesters’ main leaders stay true to their peaceful protest pledge, are open to dialogue and don’t succumb to agents provocateurs the optimism wouldn’t be misplaced.
The PML-N has more to lose than any of the players currently in the fray so one would hope for better sense to prevail. The party should move forward with clarity as to what are democratic norms and not resort to ifs and Butts.
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
Published in Dawn, August 16th, 2014
