THE operation under way in North Waziristan has perhaps left the highest number of people internally displaced. The numbers are staggering in a state that treats census data from the distant 1998 as a touchstone for Fata demographics. Just as astonishing are the figures for refugees: people choosing to cross the international border to seek refuge in Afghanistan.

On July 2, the UNHCR said the number was 75,000; Afghanistan authorities now say it is 100,000.

Whatever their reasons for choosing Afghanistan — a porous border, proximity, ethnic and blood bonds — these refugees have become another sour point in the tenuous ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan. From outright denial in the beginning that the military operation has created refugees, now the Pakistan government is contesting the figures given by the Afghanistan authorities.

Panic-gripped Waziristan tribesmen fleeing to Afghanistan

On July 24, the Ministry of States and Frontier Regions (SAFRON) rejected the figure of 100,000, saying: “It is the propaganda of the Afghanistan government and nothing else.” And on July 26, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Governor Sardar Mehtab Abbasi said that instead of “attracting people from other countries to take refuge on its soil … instead of utilising these resources and capabilities on meddling in others’ affairs,” Afghanistan should spend resources on the “repatriation and rehabilitation of … Afghans currently faced with enormous problems in other countries”.

Political point scoring

“The Afghan government couldn’t have legally or morally refused refuge to tribesmen from North Waziristan, nor could the Pakistan government force it to,” says Prof Ijaz Khan, author of Pakistan’s Strategic Culture and Foreign Policy Making: A study of Pakistan’s Post 9/11 Afghan Policy. “International law allows people, whenever they feel threatened, to seek refuge anywhere. Refuge and asylum are basic human rights that can’t be denied to people.”

In the 1980s, Pakistan encouraged refugee migration from Afghanistan. The Ziaul Haq regime’s stated policy was that they [Afghans displaced by the Soviet invasion] are mohajir and their Pakistani hosts are ansar because it served the Afghan ‘jihad’. At other times, especially post-Sept 11, this country closed its borders to Afghan refugees displaced by the foreign troops. When countries have a history of recrimination, political considerations take precedence over the humanitarian. This is why, say political observers, refugees are treated as an opportunity for point scoring by squabbling neighbours.

“If tribesmen from North Waziristan went across, or Afghans come to Pakistan, it is not for a picnic,” says Afrasiab Khattak of the Awami National Party. “There is conflict on both sides and people are suffering. To discredit human tragedy for political mileage is in bad taste. People didn’t go there for political reasons. The Afghan government didn’t extend them an invitation. It is important that we deal with this as a humanitarian issue so that it is not politicised.”

Security concerns

On the other hand, observers point out, when Pakistan has finally taken action against militants in North Waziristan — a long-standing demand of Afghanistan and the West — Pakistan’s western neighbour needs to distance itself from militants such as the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan’s Mullah Fazlullah. Afghanistan welcoming tribesmen into its folds also revives old fears that it may stoke the Pakhtunistan sentiment, something Pakistan has long accused its neighbour of.

“The governor’s statement needs to be seen in the context of the history of hostilities between the two neighbours,” says Aimal Khattak, an independent analyst. “Whenever there has been a crisis, we have accepted millions of Afghans but we can’t accept thousands of us going there. Apart from sensitivities related to the tribal affinity with Afghanistan, when refugees went there, the Afghans said, ‘You took care of us for 30 years. It is our turn to take care of you.’ The authorities and the humanitarian aid agencies were equally generous with aid and support. Here, the provinces turned them away. And, before the operation, the local commander Gul Bahadur also asked them to go to Afghanistan.”

While Pakistan fears that tribesmen going there may be assimilated into TTP ranks, Afghanistan has its own apprehensions.

In Pakistan, the displaced are being registered and their movement is restricted. In Afghanistan, intelligence officials have expressed concerns that militants may have sneaked in disguised as refugees.

“Whether they have been displaced here or gone across, tribesmen have taken arms with them,” says Aimal Khattak.

“Afghanistan has registered them and they are being monitored because of the fear that armed terrorists might be amongst them.”

Missed opportunity

For all these concerns, analysts say, a situation that breeds acrimony could easily have been avoided if authorities in Pakistan had planned the humanitarian intervention well in time. There will always be tribesmen along the border who would prefer crossing over for reasons of convenience; the authorities should have seen this coming.

“We have made blunders in the past and learnt nothing from them,” says Azmat Hayat, an academic formerly associated with the Area Study Centre at the University of Peshawar. “These days, you make a minor mistake and others will use it against you. We know that the Afghanistan government cannot cope with more refuges or internally displaced persons than it already has. The authorities could have moved well in time to take care of the tribes on the border instead of leaving them to their own devices.”

The statements from SAFRON and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa governor about Afghanistan taking back its own refugees need to be seen against the backdrop of Pakistan’s stance on Afghan refugees in recent years, a policy more political than humanitarian. While Afghan refugees have been forcibly uprooted from the Kacha Garhi and Jalozai camps in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in recent years — officials say it was for security reasons — despite the overt state policy of “voluntary repatriation”, in July last year the cabinet extended Afghan refugees’ stay and the UNHCR started giving them the Proof of Registration Cards in February 2014 to ascertain their identity. Observers say that officials need to know that the best forum to raise such issues is a tripartite commission created in March 2003, with officials from Pakistan, Afghanistan and the UNHCR that governs the repatriation of Afghan refugees.

“When it comes to matters relating to two governments, unless it is in writing or it comes from the quarters concerned, we can’t treat it as a change in policy,” says Adnan Rehmat, a media and political analyst. “These comments come from government functionaries, based on officials’ briefings, feedback and sometimes rash sentiments. It is entirely within the remit of the governor to make these statements or demands, but unless it comes from the foreign office, with deadlines and mechanisms agreed to by the UNHCR and the Afghanistan government, it is just rhetoric for domestic consumption.”

Published in Dawn, July 29th, 2014