In the last four years, area under cultivation of crops has declined by 1.45m hectares across the country and authorities have made very little effort to reverse the trend which is damaging not only for agricultural growth but also for keeping a demographic balance.

In FY09, the total area under various crops was estimated around 24.01m hectares, which gradually fell to 22.56m hectares in FY13, official stats reveal. Even more disturbingly, current fallow or the area that remained vacant in a particular year but had been cropped at least once in the previous year expanded from 5.04m hectares in FY09 to 7.04m hectares in FY13.

“These stats point to a dangerous trend,” says a former secretary of Sindh agriculture department. “If the cropped area is falling and the fallow land is increasing,, there are some underlying factors that are keeping farmers away from fields. Both federal and provincial authorities must explore those factors and take corrective steps. Or else, all plans to boost crop output will fall apart.”

Agriculturists say one reason for the fall in total cropped area is that after the super floods of July-September 2010, a sizeable area of farmlands has not been fully reclaimed

Agriculturists say one reason for the fall in total cropped area is that after the super floods of July-September 2010, sizeable area of farmlands in the country have not been fully reclaimed. They say another reason is that not only some owners of such land but a number of other farmers, who once used to cultivate some crops, switched over to cattle farming and livestock breeding, lured by its fatter returns amidst growth of milk and meat processing industry.

In KP and Balochistan, militancy has also played a role in containing the area under crops, media reports say.

“Add to this list such other factors like shortage of rain or canal water, farmers leaving for cities and a creeping breakdown of extended family system in rural areas that create shortage of working hands at farms, and you get the picture of land utilisation for crops is declining,” explains an official of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research.

Citing statistics compiled by Indus River System Authority, he says surface water availability for crops for past many years and particularly between FY09 and FY13 has remained 10-15pc below average.

Credible data on rural to urban migration is not available but despite an increase in income levels over last few years “complaints of shortage of rural workforce has been a common phenomenon whose roots can be traced, among other things, to migration to non-farming areas.” The assumption that growth in livestock sector has also resulted in a shift from crop growing to cattle farming and livestock breeding also seems somewhat realistic when one sees the rise in the population of cows, buffaloes, goats and sheep. Their combined population gradually increased from around 149 million in FY09 to about 166 million, the current Economic Survey reveals.

Land utilisation for major crops varies every year due to a host of reasons but, most importantly, on perceived returns on a particular crop. But on balance, the total area under cultivation of four major crops namely cotton, wheat, rice and sugarcane normally doesn’t show much of a variation.

“The reason is a combination from amongst these major crops is almost certain to bring enough returns to growers,” says a senior official of Sindh agriculture department.

“Besides, farming of the four major crops is rooted in farmers’ family traditions and they seldom deviate from it.”

The shortage in overall cropped area, therefore, occurs more because of changes in the area under cultivation of maize and minor crops including pulses, according to historical data.

In FY09, cumulative area under cultivation of four key crops was around 15.86 million hectares. Four years later in FY13, the area under cultivation of these crops remained little changed at 15.01 million hectares despite the fact that individually there were more pronounced change in areas under cultivation of cotton, wheat, rice and sugarcane, official statistics reveal.

Lethargy on the part of provincial governments also aggravates the issue of a gradual decline in the area under cultivation of crops. Provincial agricultural development plans seldom envisage allocations for making barren land cultivable. And when such plans are made, they are not implemented efficiently.

A case in point is the ambitious Sindh Government plan announced back in 2008 to develop one million hectares of barren land. Under this plan, the government was to provide support to farmers with machinery and subsidised facilities required to bring the area under cultivation. Had this plan been implemented efficiently, the overall area under cultivation of crops may not have declined despite some shrinkage here and there, agriculturists say.

The total area under crop cultivation in Sindh shrank gradually from 3.82m hectares in FY09 to 3.22m hectares in FY13.

Officials of Sindh agriculture department, however, claim that the plan went well but devastations of the super floods of 2010 offset its impact. They say that the area under crop cultivation in the province has, in fact, begun expanding and in FY13 alone it saw an additional of 200,000 hectares.

Published in Dawn, Economic & Business, June 23rd, 2014