THE rainy spell in March — counted as a big blessing for the Rabi crops, particularly wheat — was, a month later, followed by another spell that proved to be a bane for farmers.

The unusually prolonged rains would certainly not spell well for the standing wheat crop. Wheat farmers, worried about the fate of their crop, now want the government to share their losses by raising the support price to Rs1,300 per 40 kg, from Rs1,200.

But only Sindh has responded by increasing the support price by Rs1.25 per kg to Rs31.25 per kg. But it did so to discourage movement of its wheat to other provinces and prevent smuggling to Afghanistan. This will help the middlemen, not farmers. The purpose is to meet the procurement target, which was missed last year. This year’s target is 1.3m tonnes.

According to food security ministry officials, the March rains were expected to play a benign role in enhancing grain production. But the weather, becoming more unpredictable with the passage of time, instead played a hostile role. The arid zones were fortunate to have the rains for their wheat crop, but the effect of the April rains remains to be determined. The government had already set 25m tonnes wheat target for the Rabi season 2013-14.

The untimely April rains have not only delayed wheat harvesting, but have also damaged standing crops, prompting farmers to delay harvest of ripe wheat. It was a rare move on the part of the Punjab agriculture department to make an appeal to the people to hold special prayers for an end to the rains to save the crops.

In many areas in Sargodha, Gujranwala and Lahore divisions and in southern Punjab, unabated downpour coupled with strong winds caused immense crop losses, expected by department officials to be between 0.2m and 0.4m tonnes. The province, the largest producer of wheat in the country, has been given a target of 19.1m tonnes.

Dampness impacts the quality of the crop, apart from creating rust and fungus problems. The standard moisture levels of 11pc at which wheat should be harvested cannot be attained in the fields, and if one waits long enough to see that level arrive, the losses would be too much. And, it goes without saying that the government cannot accept wheat with higher moisture levels.

The Wheat Growers Association suggests that farmers should harvest wheat with high moisture, and then bring it to a facility where it can be dried and later procured. The charges of drying could be shared by the food department. The drying facilities are available at rice mills, many of which are lying idle because the paddy drying season has come to an end.

But if farmers opt to wait until the wheat reaches safe moisture levels of 11-12pc, it would delay their preparations for the next crop, and also reduce the per acre yield.

Punjab Food Minister Bilal Yasin says the arrival of fresh wheat crop has been delayed in the province because of the rainy season, and also because the Sindh government has imposed a ban on the movement of wheat, mainly towards Punjab. As such, wheat is not available in the open market.

However, Punjab, he says, has imposed no such restriction on the outflow of wheat and wheat flour.

The gap is being filled through releases from government stock in the interest of consumers.

Wheat stock, according to an official document, was reported at 2.468m tonnes on March 3, 2014. It included strategic reserves of 1m tonnes held by the Pakistan Agriculture Storage and Services Corporation (Passco). It is expected that the closing stock will be around 1.41m tonnes at the end of the food year.

Out of the wheat stock, Punjab had 0.986m tonnes, Sindh 0.148m tonnes, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 0.141m tonnes, Balochistan 0.0067m tonnes and Passco 1.126m tonnes.

A proposal by the finance ministry to halve the country’s strategic wheat reserves from 1m to 0.5m tonnes because of limited fiscal space has been rejected by the ministry of national food security and research. A senior official of the food ministry says strategic wheat reserves will be maintained at 1m tones, as per international obligations.

Meanwhile, a recent report by the State Bank of Pakistan on the state of the economy described climate change as a major threat to agriculture and risk to food security. The expected increase in temperature, it said, may lower production of wheat by 1.5-2.5pc, and of rice by 2-4pc by 2020.