The economists and common man are delighted over the fact that the rupee has after years overpowered the dollar — the latter already losing its status of being the ‘reserve currency’ of the world.

Yet, the strength of the rupee has done some ‘collateral damage’ to the calculations and forecasts of analysts and brokers at the stock market. It poured cold water over the euphoria caused by the grant of GSP+ status to the country by the European Union.

As exporters worry over the lower export prices, the noise on the textile sector has been silenced and the stock prices continue to recede.

The market value of the biggest stock on the sector, Nishat Mills, has fallen to its 2014 low and the same goes for other stocks on the sector.

Oil and gas sector is likely to feel the heat, once the sound over an international upsurge in crude price dies down.

Head of equity sales, at Foundation Securities, Zubair Ghulam Hussain points out that revenue of 60pc of the sectors on the stock exchange is dollar-linked.

It is understable then that the investors panicked on Friday on the sharp drop of Rs11.66 or 4.5 per cent in the price of OGDC — the heaviest weighted share on the KSE-100 index. The second highest weighted share of MCB Bank also followed suit.

The investors’ worst fears materialised when they witnessed the foreign investors’ sale of $4.37 million worth stock on Friday. Over the week the foreign outflow stood at $10m.

The slide in the price of OGDC has naturally caused concern at the market, as the majority of floating stock has already passed into the hands of foreigners.

Franklin Resources, an American holding company which, together with its subsidiaries, is referred to as Franklin Templeton Investments, has mopped up over 60 per cent of the free-float in OGDC.

But most market pundits argue that Templeton is unlikely to ditch the stake in Pakistan market, Franklin Resources also holds more than 15 per cent free-float in top tier MCB Bank, the fourth biggest stock on KSE in terms of market capitalisation.

MCB has 8pc weightage in the index.

Incidentally, the top three foreigners’ favourite stocks (OGDC, MCB and PPL) account for more than half of overseas investors’ stake in Pakistan bourses. The influence of foreign investors in the local capital markets cannot, the fore be ignored.

There are reasons that the market gurus dismiss the possibility of foreigners’ calling quits to the Pakistan market and mainly the OGDC.

“Besides the better returns offered by Pakistani equities, consider that Templeton started accumulating OGDC in 2008-09, when the stock was priced in the range of Rs 60 to Rs180, which means the average price for the Fund works out at Rs120”, says a major stock broker. He observes that the OGDC earnings have jumped by 100pc since then.

Franklin Templeton, being one of the world’s largest funds is a perpetual investor and unlike the local participants, big foreign funds rarely act like a panic prone herd.

“It is very unlikely that Templeton would let go its profitable stake in Pakistan’s biggest oil and gas company, when Mark Mobius, head of Franklin Templeton Investments, has several times advocated enormous potential in emerging markets’ energy sector”, says this broker.

His statement corroborated by other analysts and corporate investment strategists.

So why did the foreigners resort to heavy selling in OGDC on Friday.

“Simply profit-taking”, says Mohammad Sohail, CEO at Topline Securities. “If the overseas investors had bought the stock in the range of Rs120, they have the unquestionable right to book profit at the current all-time high price of the stock at Rs264.”

Follow Dawn Business on Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook for insights on business, finance and tech from Pakistan and across the world.

Opinion

Editorial

X post facto
Updated 19 Apr, 2024

X post facto

Our decision-makers should realise the harm they are causing.
Insufficient inquiry
19 Apr, 2024

Insufficient inquiry

UNLESS the state is honest about the mistakes its functionaries have made, we will be doomed to repeat our follies....
Melting glaciers
19 Apr, 2024

Melting glaciers

AFTER several rain-related deaths in KP in recent days, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority has sprung into...
IMF’s projections
Updated 18 Apr, 2024

IMF’s projections

The problems are well-known and the country is aware of what is needed to stabilise the economy; the challenge is follow-through and implementation.
Hepatitis crisis
18 Apr, 2024

Hepatitis crisis

THE sheer scale of the crisis is staggering. A new WHO report flags Pakistan as the country with the highest number...
Never-ending suffering
18 Apr, 2024

Never-ending suffering

OVER the weekend, the world witnessed an intense spectacle when Iran launched its drone-and-missile barrage against...