The Asian summer monsoon, which brings heavy rainfall from June to September across China, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, etc. affects almost two thirds of humanity. Today, scientists are worried about how climate change will impact Asia’s life-sustaining monsoons, which control the seasonal alternation of wet and dry periods. Scientists are already pointing out that climate change is making the monsoons more erratic.

The region’s economy is based largely upon agriculture, so changes in the strength and path of the Asian monsoon can be disastrous. Since the Asian monsoon is critical to the agriculture, water resources and the economy of Pakistan, understanding the variability of the monsoon and prediction is vital for the wellbeing of the country. Hence, last month the newly formed Centre for Climate Research and Development (CCRD) at the COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad organised an international conference on “Asian Monsoon and Climate Change” in the capital. The conference was organised in association with the prestigious Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and the International Centre for Climate and Environment Sciences in China (ICCES-China).

“It was actually an Asian and European meeting held in Islamabad to discuss the monsoon system,” explained retired Ambassador Shahid Kamal, who is currently helping the CCRD as an Advisor to the Comsats Institute. The conference was attended by a large number of leading scientists and researchers from countries like Germany, India, Malaysia, Bangladesh, China, Iran, Italy, Malaysia, Nepal, Russia, USA and Pakistan and provided a platform for scientific discussions on the variability of the monsoon and its relationship with the changing climate system.

The conference also highlighted the work of the CCRD, which is working in a trans-disciplinary manner, building on the knowledge of Comsats various departments and collaborating with the Potsdam Institute and the ICCES in Beijing. “The CCRD will start classes this year in climate sciences so we are looking forward to that; we would like to contribute to the debate on climate change in Pakistan by developing scientific skills and capacity and reaching out to policy making departments,” explained Kamal.

At the inaugural session of the two-day conference, the chief guest, Federal Minister for Science and Technology Zahid Hamid, emphasised the importance of climate change as a global issue. Today Pakistan faces five major risks related to climate change: rise in sea level, glacial retreats, floods, higher average temperatures and more frequent droughts.

The Director of ICCES-China, Prof. Zhaohui Lin, highlighted its longstanding cooperation with international organisations like Comsats. The Head of International Cooperation, PIK-Germany, Prof. Dr Jürgen P. Kropp, noted that climate change is a constant phenomenon that influences human lives, especially in terms of water and food security, agricultural yield and energy production, among others. Due to the recent developments in climate sciences, projections on complex climatic phenomena are now possible. Dr Kropp called for spreading greater awareness amongst the stakeholders so they can take informed decisions.

The technical talks of the conference focused on the impact of climate change and monsoon variability on extreme weather events, urban drainage systems, food security, biodiversity and water resources. Various factors influencing the anomalous variations in rainfall patterns, their effects and possible predictive models were also deliberated upon. According to Ghulam Rasul, the chief meteorologist of Pakistan, “Summer monsoon is the major source of water in Pakistan, which is almost double in the northern half as compared to the southern half. During the last two decades, occurrence of heavy downpours as well as shift in temporal and spatial distribution of monsoon precipitation has been noticed. Future climate projections suggest that the summer monsoon in Pakistan is going to be highly variable over time and space embedded with extreme events giving rise to flash floods, riverine floods and urban floods. The impact of climate change will be more pronounced and visible on water resources as they would send shock waves to all the socioeconomic sectors, shattering water, food and energy security.”

The meeting highlighted that the Asian monsoon has a critical influence on the climate system of the region and affects more than 60 per cent of the world’s population. There is today an urgent need to build climate resilience and more work is needed on climate vulnerability, adaptation and disaster risk management. The participating scientists resolved to promote linkages to advance research on climate change and develop further collaborations with the CCRD.

At the concluding ceremony, the French ambassador to Pakistan, H.E. Mr Philippe Thiébaud, called for more scientific and diplomatic interactions on issues related to climate change. France will be hosting the UN Climate Change Conference 2015 in Paris where it is hoped that a global treating curbing carbon emissions (which are causing climate change) will be agreed upon by countries signatory to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.