LAST week, the government shelved plans to conduct the long overdue sixth national census. The decision was made to avoid the unrest and political backlash that would follow any announcement of census findings. Since fresh census data will have profound implications for resource allocation, electoral redistricting and seat allocation at provincial and national levels, the government expects an outcry from all stakeholders, no matter what the outcome.

The fallback option of curtailing unrest by having the military supervise the census was also rejected, largely owing to parties’ fear of discrimination. Even if it were not controversial, the military option is not tenable when Pakistanis are clinging to the notion that, for all its problems, the country is undergoing a democratic consolidation.

Moreover, the military’s focus in the coming months should remain on tackling the threat from homegrown militancy, rather than being distracted by the major logistical challenge a census entails.

The census challenge resembles the other existential catch-22s the country faces: the state cannot endure the ongoing militant onslaught, but by taking on violent extremists who claim to fight for Islam and Sharia, the state risks raising fundamental questions about its founding and raison d’être.

Similarly, Pakistan is reluctant to open trade with India because it believes the economic superpower will subsume its smaller economy, but Pakistan’s economy cannot grow to full potential until it trades with India. Pakistan cannot conduct a census for fear of the backlash from groups with political grievances, but the state cannot address the structural problems that fuel those grievances without completing a census.

Rather than cloak it in the language of insecurity and prudence, it is worth pointing out that the government’s decision to indefinitely postpone the census is a sign of its weakness. The state’s fear of backlash highlights not only its inability to ensure law and order but also, and more importantly, its trust deficit with the public.

Unrest is likely to follow a national census not because Pakistanis can’t reconcile to demographic trends, but because few have faith in the transparency and efficiency of the public machinery. Whatever the data reveals about changes in population, migration and income, the public will assume the findings are, at worst, doctored for the benefit of certain political parties or, at best, botched owing to the lack of capacity.

The government’s logic for putting off the census also underlines the extent to which our politics is driven by grievance narratives rather than issue-based or service-oriented platforms. Political parties bank on narratives of ethnic marginalisation, and exaggerate or underestimate the size of their constituencies, never mind that these narratives fuel interethnic resentment and clashes.

Whether it’s the Baloch and Pakhtuns in Quetta, the ethno-linguistic groups battling it out in Karachi, the Seraiki speakers of Punjab or the Hazaras of KP, each group has concocted a perception of its true size to adhere to convenient political narratives about majority claims, ethnic victimisation etc. Accurate census counts could debunk these narratives, leading to disadvantageous electoral redistricting, resource redistribution or provincial demarcations.

Sadly, the failure to premise decision-making on the basis of accurate population trends will further confound democratic principles and instead reiterate the elite culture of political patronage and bargaining. Rather than operate in a transparent manner, the leadership of political parties will make decisions about constituencies and resources through back-channel deals and pressure tactics. This will further concentrate power in the hands of the few and also delay the much-needed shift from individual-propping to institution-building.

By resisting the clarity an accurate census could provide, politicians also risk becoming disconnected from their constituencies. For example, the continued failure to conduct a census has prevented Pakistan from properly acknowledging the speed and scale of urbanisation. This means politicians continue to cater to mythic rural constituents through their rhetoric and initiatives. In this scenario, short-term unrest is averted as a census does not provoke constituents to question statistics and subsequent resource and seat allocations. But in the long term, inadequate service delivery, poor governance and corruption fuel disillusionment, leading to prolonged unrest.

Concerns about grievances percolating in the long-term should motivate our politicians to conduct the census, whether or not it leads to short-term unrest. No government can pretend to serve its people without making robust policies and delivering basic services. Without a census, the government cannot estimate the existing demand for schools, affordable housing, public transport, healthcare facilities and jobs. Without these, no population can be placated for long.

The writer is a freelance journalist.

Twitter: @humayusuf